Commentary: A rebel leader has done in Syria what world powers and the UN could not

SINGAPORE: “Revolutionaries don't always make great leaders,” a veteran journalist reminded me in early 2012.

It was about a year into the Arab Spring, when uprisings tore through the Middle East and North Africa. We were foreign correspondents at the United Nations reporting on the fallout, tracking developments reshaping geopolitics in the region and the world.

Libya’s revolutionary-turned-dictator Muammar Gaddafi had been shot dead, Egypt was about to end six decades of military rule by electing a leader from the Muslim Brotherhood, and Syria was embroiled in a bitter civil war that would soon reverberate around the world.

Ripped apart by rebel fighting, violent government crackdowns, the rise of the Islamic State terror group, and airstrikes by the United States and Russia, millions were fleeing in what would become the largest refugee crisis of our time.

All that was enough for Syria to top the agenda at the UN, but the world body’s most powerful arm was paralysed.

At the Security Council, the US, the United Kingdom and France kept demanding that Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad step down. Russia and China kept opposing. Diplomats bickered and blustered. No one budged.

There were emergency meetings, walkouts, condemnation, and gut-wrenching videos of chemical attacks and testimonials from war victims. Some humanitarian assistance was negotiated, chemical weapons inspectors were deployed, but no UN-brokered peace.

Now, a rebel leader has done what world powers and the UN could not - liberate Syria from its 13-year conflict and end 50 years of Assad family rule.

And he is bearing the promise of peace.

"People are exhausted from war. So the country isn't ready for another one and it's not going to get into another one,” Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, head of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militant group that overthrew the Assad regime, told Sky News on Wednesday (Dec 11).

“The source of our fears was from the Iranian militias, Hezbollah and the regime which committed the massacres we are seeing today. So their removal is the solution for Syria. The current situation won’t allow for a return to panic.”

Jolani would have you think he’s a revolutionary and a liberator, but his origins are much more sinister.

Before HTS, he was leader of the Al-Nusra Front, the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda. Think Osama bin Laden, US embassy bombings, and the September 11 attacks. It was aligned with the Islamic State, known for its rampant violence, public displays of beheadings and immolations, and media savvy.

THE MAKEOVER

Around 2015, we watched as Jolani began to distance himself from the Islamic State’s brand of global jihadist ideology and turn his focus to liberating Syria from Assad rule. Al-Nusra became HTS, but there were other shifts to come.

He started to change his appearance, trading in his militant garb for western blazers, ditched the turban favoured by jihadists, and trimmed his beard. More recently, he took on a more moderate tone in interviews with mainstream media, and began using his real name Ahmed al-Sharaa over his nom de guerre.

As a public relations strategy, the optics are good. Jolani-Sharaa is now more palatable to a world with little stomach for more extremism.

The UN’s envoy to Syria Geir Pedersen said the UN still regards HTS as a terrorist group, but that could change.

“It is nine years since that resolution was adopted and the reality so far is that the HTS and also the other armed groups have been sending good messages to the Syrian people, said Pedersen on Tuesday. “They have been sending messages of unity, of inclusiveness and frankly speaking, also we are also seeing in Aleppo and in Hama, we have also seen reassuring things on the ground.”

It’s an important pivot. Germany and France are now open to working with the rebel rulers if they respect human rights and the protection of minorities. In the US, outgoing President Joe Biden promised the country will help manage risks in the uncertainty, but it will be incoming US president Donald Trump who will inherit what's to come, whether he thinks it’s America’s fight or not.

But before anyone can make any real future plans, eyes must first be on what the immediate future holds as rebels assert their newfound authority on the capital and attempt to rebuild the country, and on whether the Sunni leadership can win over other rebel factions - some still clashing in the northeast - as well as embattled citizens and minority groups like the Alawites, Shiites, Druze, Kurds, Yazidis and Christians.

FRIENDS AND FOES

Already foreign actors are protecting their interests in the unfolding uncertainty.

Israel has seized a buffer zone in the Golan Heights, saying a 1974 disengagement deal with Syria had "collapsed". Cue outrage from members of the international community.

Israel’s air force is also striking Syrian military bases and chemical weapons sites, while the US is targeting ISIL camps to disable the terror group and keep it from reconstituting in the chaos.

Russia has provided asylum to Assad, but has reportedly also reached out to Syrian leaders in an effort to protect its military interests.

Turkey is the foreign player to watch. Experts say its support was critical in the HTS’ success, and it will likely be the most influential foreign actor in Syria’s next chapter.

Iran, not so much. The Assad ally, with its militias expelled from Syria, seems to be watching from the sidelines, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei saying Wednesday that Tehran has evidence the US and Israel were behind the overthrow.

GOING HOME

Remember Alan Kurdi, the two-year-old Syrian boy who drowned in the Mediterranean Sea with his family as they fled the war in September 2015? For a fleeting moment in this drawn-out conflict, pictures of his body on the beach caught the world’s attention and galvanised international solidarity and support for the Syrian people.

Not many people watching this space can forget the scenes of Syrian refugees arriving in Europe, welcomed warmly by citizens eager to make a difference, at least initially.

Now, an estimated 14 million displaced Syrians - half of them scattered across 130 countries around the world - will have the chance to return home and rebuild their lives.

The question is whether they will return to a change that is truly revolutionary, or a mere repetition of their long history of violence.

Liling Tan is an editor at CNA. Previously based in the US, she has covered the United Nations for a decade.