‘Look beyond four years’: Countries should take longer-term view of relations with the US, says SM Lee

SHANGHAI: Even as the implications and uncertainty of a Trump 2.0 presidency capture global attention, Singapore Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong has cautioned that countries should avoid focusing on the "immediate ups and downs" of events in the United States.

What’s important is to look beyond a single four-year term of the US government, as many issues typically extend way beyond a single term, Mr Lee told Singapore media on Friday (Nov 29) as he wrapped up his six-day official visit to China. 

“Whether you are an adversary, whether you are a rival, whether you are an ally, whether you are a friend, you just have to accept this is how the US system works, and do your best to make sensible assessments and take sensible measures,” he added.

“If you are able to look beyond four years as a horizon, you should try and do that. So that is what I think countries are all trying to do, and we will see how it turns out.”

Mr Lee’s trip to China saw him travelling to Suzhou, Beijing and Shanghai. He met with Chinese leaders including President Xi Jinping, reaffirmed the importance of Sino-Singapore relations and took stock of key bilateral projects, while also meeting with Singaporeans working and studying in the country.

The visit came less than two weeks after Mr Lee made a working trip to the US. He delivered a lecture at Harvard University, celebrated the 40th anniversary of Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC’s operations in the US, and engaged with prominent American strategic thinkers and corporate leaders.

ALL EYES ON TRUMP 2.0

When asked about his key takeaways from both trips, Mr Lee acknowledged that both the US and China are closely monitoring the potential implications of the incoming Donald Trump administration.

"The business people (in America) - they see pluses and minuses. They are not pessimistic about the US economy, because they think the Republican administration generally will be a plus for the US economy,” explained the senior minister.

“But they are anxious about US-China relations, like the prospects for their investments in China and the outlook for further investments in China, and it's affecting their decisions.”

Meanwhile, the Chinese are closely observing the situation, said Mr Lee, noting their concern about maintaining "relations with America on an even keel".

Competition and confrontation have been gaining ground in recent years, at the expense of cooperation in the Sino-US relationship. Analysts have singled out competition as effectively becoming a structural condition of their ties.

This is set to heighten under an America led by Mr Trump.

The US president-elect has assembled a team comprising many China hawks and already vowed to impose blanket 60 per cent tariffs on all Chinese goods once he takes the Oval Office. In the latest salvo on Nov 25, Mr Trump said he would impose an additional 10 per cent tariff on China over fentanyl flows.

“The Chinese are trying to figure out how they can maintain their relations on some stable basis, and to have discussions and make commitments which you can follow through on and which will work,” said Mr Lee.

“First of all, across the term of change of government, and secondly, hopefully beyond any single term of an administration.”

The Singaporean leader also remarked that despite their differences, the US and China - the world’s largest economies - must engage with one another. 

“You may have contradictions, you may have problems, but you have to deal with one another, because America will always be there … similarly, China will always be here and is not going to disappear, and you have to do business with China,” said Mr Lee.

“QUITE SERIOUS” IMMEDIATE ISSUES

Mr Lee met Chinese leaders at both the central and local levels during this latest trip, including face time with Mr Xi. He also met with business leaders.

On China’s economy, Mr Lee said the Chinese assessment is that they can make “5 per cent growth plus around that” this year. This would place performance in line with China’s stated target of “around 5 per cent” growth.

“(The) question is whether you can revive the vibrancy, the confidence, the optimism, the innovation and entrepreneurship which have created breakthroughs, unicorns and tremendous sense of dynamism and transformation,” said Mr Lee, noting this has been a driving factor for nearly 50 years since China embraced reforms and opening up in 1978.

China is also confronting “quite serious” immediate issues, complicated matters which will “take some time” to resolve, said Mr Lee. The country is dealing with a protracted property crisis, debt-ridden local governments, flagging consumption and a shrinking population.

“The challenge … is that you've got to balance the economic considerations with the political and the social considerations and the national security and external strategic concerns and make a judgment,” said Mr Lee.

Mr Lee said Singapore and Chinese companies in China are cognisant of the issues and are trying to find a way forward, in their own way.

The senior minister was also positive on the overall direction of Singapore-China relations. He expressed confidence that Singapore is committed to collaborating with China. At the same time, China has consistently demonstrated a friendly attitude toward Singapore.

“This is evident not just at the government level, but also among businesses and the general public,” said the senior minister.

“Singapore enjoys a good reputation in China, and Singaporeans are highly respected and welcomed for exchanges and mutual learning. Similarly, we hope to draw lessons from China’s experiences and deepen our understanding of their circumstances.”

“BROADER VIEW”

This is Mr Lee’s first visit to China since stepping down as Singapore prime minister in May and handing the leadership reins to Mr Lawrence Wong.

Mr Lee indicated that his current role as senior minister offers him more freedom in engaging with the Chinese.

He shared that when he was PM, all cooperation projects between Singapore and China were his direct responsibility. That is no longer the case, the senior minister pointed out.

“This allows me to engage with the Chinese side from a more long-term perspective, discussing bilateral relations with a broader view,” said Mr Lee.

“Exploring areas for enhanced cooperation, addressing issues that may arise, and assessing how international developments might impact our collaboration. This is a key difference from before.”

Mr Wong has yet to visit China. His latest trip was to Thailand on Nov 28, as part of his introductory visits to Southeast Asian capitals since taking office.

“The prime minister will, of course, also visit China when the opportunity arises, and we hope Chinese leaders will visit Singapore for state or working visits,” said Mr Lee, who noted how there is always work to be done, given the breadth and depth of the bilateral projects and cooperation.

“My role is to assist the prime minister in this regard. I believe this benefits the government, businesses, the people, and Singapore as a whole.”