With other options on the table, where would nuclear sit in Southeast Asia's future green energy mix?

In the battle against climate change, clean energy, comprising both renewable energy and other forms of low-carbon ones, is a crucial tool.

But the grim truth is that Southeast Asia lags behind many other regions in adopting them.

Some 30 countries have operable nuclear plants today, while about 10 per cent of the world’s electricity generated by nuclear – a form of low-carbon energy. 

By contrast, no member state in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has a nuclear generator despite long-standing interest in exploring the option.

And while some countries in this region have long adopted renewable energy – energy produced from natural sources such as hydro and solar – the level of deployment is nowhere near other regions.

Seven countries including Bhutan, Paraguay and Ethiopia produce almost 100 per cent of their electricity using renewable energy sources.

Another 40 countries, including New Zealand, generated at least half of their consumed electricity from renewable energy in 2021 and 2022.

In contrast, a report by the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) released in September this year noted that as of 2022 – more recent data was not available – renewable energy made up only 15.6 per cent of ASEAN's energy supply. 

This is a far cry from the goal that ASEAN set for itself in 2020, for 23 per cent of its total primary energy supply to come from renewable energy sources by 2025.

This refers to the total amount of energy the region has at its disposal, excluding energy exports. 

But the need to go green is becoming ever more urgent, as energy consumption in fast-growing Southeast Asia is projected to soar 2.6 times by 2050 from 2022 levels. 

The question then remains on what is the best way forward for Southeast Asia to fulfil its sustainability commitments while still quenching its growing thirst for energy.

Should it continue down the path of expanding its renewable energy capacities, which experts say has been riddled with challenges like infrastructure limitations, investment and financing challenges and policy barriers?

Or should Southeast Asian countries consider more seriously the option of nuclear energy and work through the challenges associated with this controversial energy system?

RENEWABLE ENERGY AT A GLANCE 

In 2022, 29.2 per cent of electricity was generated from renewable energy sources in ASEAN countries. This percentage is markedly higher than the 15.6 per cent share of renewables in the total energy supply because the latter also includes energy sources other than electricity, such as petrol for cars, which are still largely dependent on fossil fuels.

This level of generation indicates that renewable energy has been “steadily replacing” fossil fuels in the electricity generation mix, said Dr Zulfikar Yurnaidi, head of energy modelling and policy planning at the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE).

The breakdown of these renewable sources is as follows:

• Hydroelectricity: 19.5 per cent of total electricity generated
• Solar photovoltaic, or solar PV, the technology that converts sunlight directly into electricity using solar panels: 3.1 per cent
• Geothermal: 2.1 per cent
• Bioenergy, or energy derived from biofuels: 3.2 per cent 
• Wind: 1.1 per cent
• Other renewables: 0.2 per cent

Here is a closer look at some of the key sources of renewable energy in Southeast Asia, and the pros and cons of each:

• Solar energy

A well-known source of renewable energy is the conversion of sunlight to electricity through solar panels. 

Solar PV costs have fallen by almost 90 per cent in the last decade, according to online scientific publication Our World in Data. 

This sharp drop in cost and the advent of new technologies that promise to increase efficiency have helped countries like Vietnam rapidly grow their solar capacity. 

Solar energy accounts for around 10.3 per cent of Vietnam's electricity generation mix as of 2022, according to International Energy Agency (IEA) figures. 

However, solar power output is intermittent, subject to cloud cover and fluctuating weather conditions. Its scalability is also limited by the land space required for solar panels.

Some believe batteries may provide at least part of the answer.

Dr Chung Keng Yeow, director of Singapore Nuclear Research and Safety Initiative (SNRSI), said: “If renewable energy sources like solar or wind (are to) provide the main source of power, there must also be major development in energy storage systems to supply energy when these sources are unavailable.”

This has not hampered efforts to maximise the potential for solar within smaller countries in the region, including Singapore, which aims to reach at least two gigawatt-peak of solar energy deployment by 2030. This would meet the annual electricity needs of 350,000 households here. 

To optimise land use, panels have been installed on temporary vacant land sites and can be easily removed and shifted to new locations in the event that a site needs to be re-developed. 

Singapore has also explored floating solar deployments across water bodies, such as the 60-megawatt peak inland floating solar PV system at Tengeh Reservoir, which is about the size of 45 football fields. 

• Hydroelectricity 

Hydropower remains the most widely used source of renewable electricity in Southeast Asia, making up the lion’s share of electricity from renewable sources for countries such as Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar. 

Laos, which gets 75.9 per cent of its electricity from hydropower as per IEA 2022 figures, has been called Southeast Asia’s “battery”, exporting electricity from its near 80 dams to its neighbours.

Relying on the natural water cycle, hydropower uses flowing water to turn turbines, whose mechanical energy is converted into electricity by a generator.

It is well suited to Southeast Asia’s abundant water resources, with hydroelectric dams dotting the region, controlling river flow and storing large amounts of water in man-made lakes.

As one of the most mature renewable power generation sources, hydropower plants enjoy low operating costs and can benefit local economies.

However, even as hydropower currently generates more electricity than all other renewable technologies combined globally, erratic rainfall due to climate change is disrupting hydroelectric output in many parts of the world.

Hydropower projects have also faced criticism in Laos and other parts of the world for disrupting communities and ecosystems, requiring the relocation of villages living near dams and impacting river ecosystems.

• Wind 

Also known as windmills, wind turbines collect and convert kinetic energy produced by wind into electricity. 

According to the IEA, onshore wind is a “proven, mature technology” with an extensive global supply chain. 

Alongside solar power, it stands as the predominant source of power generation in the world's ambitions to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, though additional wind capacity will need to “increase significantly” to be on track with targets, the IEA said. 

In Southeast Asia, Vietnam is the only country where wind energy is one of the top three renewable electricity generation sources, with its very long coastline making it particularly suitable for both onshore and offshore wind projects. 

On top of being dependent on variable weather conditions, another limitation of wind energy is the significant amount of land required for turbine installations. 

Dr Zulfikar from ACE noted that the land use required to deploy wind technology is “substantially higher” than for solar. 

According to the ASEAN energy outlook regional aspiration scenario, by 2050, the total land requirement for wind is expected to be 4.1 million hectares, which amounts to 0.93 per cent of ASEAN’s total land area. 

• Geothermal 

A clean and stable source of energy is geothermal energy, created by harnessing heat produced by the earth. 

For example, steam from underground reservoirs of hot water can be used to power turbines, generating electricity. 

Harnessing geothermal energy is limited to a nation's natural resources, being most effective in countries with volcanic activity or specific geological conditions. In Southeast Asia, this has been viable mainly in Indonesia and The Philippines.

Trailing only the United States, Indonesia is the second largest producer of geothermal energy in the world, being home to about 40 per cent of potential global geothermal resources. 

Despite the country’s natural endowments, geothermal energy is a “slow moving beast”, said Mr Putra Adhigura, the managing director of Indonesia-based think tank Energy Shift Institute.  

While the sector holds long-term potential, projects may take anywhere between seven and 15 years to materialise, Mr Putra noted. 

The adoption of this renewable source is also limited by market and regulatory factors. Due to price sensitivities in emerging markets, Mr Putra said that geothermal energy continues to be more expensive than coal, making it difficult to compete in the energy mix. 

In Indonesia, as in some other Southeast Asian nations, coal continues to be subsidised by the authorities. Coal currently makes up about 60 per cent of Indonesia’s electricity production. 

• Other up and coming low-carbon alternatives

Hydrogen is an energy carrier, which means it can be used to store, move, and deliver energy produced from other sources. While most of the world’s hydrogen is produced using fossil fuels, low-carbon or green hydrogen is produced from renewable energy sources mainly through the electrolysis of water. 

When consumed in a fuel cell, it produces only water, meaning that there are almost no greenhouse gas emissions. But green hydrogen is relatively expensive to produce.

Another cleaner energy source is biofuel, or energy drawn from organic materials such as vegetable oils and animal fats, which is renewable and generally has lower carbon emissions than traditional fossil fuels.

But this type of fuel has provoked controversy as its development has led to the clearing of forests to grow biofuel crops.

NUCLEAR NOT HIGH PRIORITY 

The headway that Southeast Asian countries have been making with renewables points to the possibility of greening the regional power grid without having to adopt nuclear energy.

“According to industry analysis, Southeast Asia has abundant renewable energy potential, estimated to be 40 to 50 times the current total electricity generation in the region,” noted Mr Sharad Somani, partner and head of infrastructure advisory at professional services firm KPMG Asia Pacific.

In fact, even though ASEAN is likely missing its 2025 renewable energy target, Dr Zulfikar said that achieving it by 2030 “remains feasible” through existing national policies.

And there are other clean energy options on the horizon too.

“Emerging technologies, such as tidal and wave, green hydrogen and sustainable aviation fuel, remain as viable long-term options for energy diversification and decarbonisation,” he added.

Sustainable aviation fuels refers to the use of biofuel, for example, in place of conventional aviation fuel, a major carbon emitter.

By comparison, as set out in the first two instalments in this Big Read series, high upfront costs and safety concerns have caused nuclear energy programmes to stall in this region.

Furthermore, the nuclear accident in Chernobyl, Ukraine in 1986 and the meltdown of a nuclear reactor in Fukushima, Japan in 2011 still weigh heavily on public perception of nuclear energy, which means countries in this region that want to adopt it will need to undertake public education efforts.

In contrast, renewable energy sources tend to enjoy a higher level of public awareness and are viewed more favourably than nuclear energy.

And while overall energy demand in Southeast Asia is expected to increase, this growth is unequal, which is why the adoption of renewable energy is treated with different levels of urgency from country to country.

For example, energy demand per capita in Myanmar or Cambodia is about a quarter of the world average, but  Singapore’s is three times higher than the world average. 

All these factors have led to an uneven attitude towards nuclear energy even among neighbouring countries. 

For example, some countries such as Singapore and Malaysia have cautiously reiterated that nuclear energy is an option being studied. But others in ASEAN such as Vietnam and Indonesia have announced their intentions or even plans to deploy it.

“Countries with relatively less energy demand and small land areas will find that nuclear energy will not be their priority since they can rely on other energy sources like coal, gas, and renewables,” said Dr Zulfikar.  

Even without looking into nuclear energy, countries in Southeast Asia that are deploying less renewable energy due to constraints could potentially tap their more resources-endowed neighbours to decarbonise their power sector, should there be a robust infrastructure supporting it.

“(This is where) the significance of the ASEAN Power Grid for a green energy future cannot be overstated,” said Mr Sharad of KPMG Asia Pacific.

The ASEAN Power Grid is a project mooted in the 1990s to enhance electricity trade across borders by linking the power grids of the regional neighbours. Though beset with its own financial and technical challenges, bilateral links between some countries have been built.

“By leveraging each country’s natural resources in solar, wind, hydro, geothermal and others, a collective clean energy transition becomes achievable,” said Mr Sharad.

THE ROLE OF NUCLEAR

Even so, experts said nuclear energy still remains as an option worth contemplating for the long run.

While renewable energy sources are theoretically unlimited by nature, there are in fact limitations to how much or how often they can be harnessed.

The intermittency of certain renewable energy sources that are at the mercy of the weather, such as solar, wind and, to some extent, hydro, means that they cannot be relied on exclusively as things stand.

They need to be deployed together with efficient energy storage systems, or complemented with other sources of clean energy.

This is also where nuclear can plug the gap.

Dr Victor Nian, founding co-chairman of Singapore-based independent think tank Centre for Strategic Energy and Resources, pointed out, too, that no national grids have been designed for renewable energy.

“The intermittency and seasonal – or in our (region’s) case, day and night – unavailability poses great technical threat to the safe, smooth and efficient operation of the power grid,” he said.

Meanwhile, nuclear energy is a thermal source, akin to gas-fired power plants but without greenhouse gas emissions. Hence it is more “grid-friendly” – it can be added to a country's national electricity grid and storage infrastructure quite easily, hence reducing the need for significant investment costs that would be passed on to consumers.

As much as some nations may want to maximise their potential capacity for renewable energy, physical constraints such as land size put a limit on this, a pertinent concern especially in light of growing energy demand.

For example, the Ministry of Trade and Industry, the Energy Market Authority and National Environmental Agency told CNA TODAY: “Singapore is one of the most solar-dense cities in the world and is continuing to maximise the deployment of solar photovoltaic systems. 

“However, even at its technical maximum limit, solar will meet less than 10 per cent of our projected energy demand by 2050.”

Dr Nian noted that in balancing economic competitiveness with meeting climate and energy goals, countries like Singapore need solutions that can provide reliable, stable, economical and low-carbon electricity with very high energy density. 

"Nuclear is the only energy source that simultaneously qualifies (for) all of those attributes, but Singapore must do its due diligence to ensure safety while harnessing energy from the atoms," he said. 

And even as countries double down on clean energy to mitigate the climate emergency, climate change is expected to adversely affect the supply or efficiency of some renewable energy, raising long-term concerns for this source of electricity.

Erratic weather conditions could impact the intermittency of wind and solar energy, for instance, and even hydropower, the mainstay of renewables in this region.

A 2021 IEA study expects that climate change would pose “serious challenges” to hydropower in South Asia and Southeast Asia.

“They can affect hydropower generation by increasing variability in streamflow, shifting seasonal flows and augmenting evaporation losses from reservoirs” on top of hindering the development of future hydropower projects, said the report.

“From now until the end of the century, the regional mean hydropower capacity factor is projected to decrease due to changing climate conditions.”

Experts said that the main advantage nuclear has as a clean energy source compared to many renewables is its stability and reliability.

This is why some countries in this region are still keeping all options on the table, with some taking more active steps than others in seriously mulling nuclear.

NOT ONE AGAINST THE OTHER

Ultimately, it does not have to be about picking one over the other ​–​​​​​​ countries which have already deployed renewables are also exploring nuclear energy, too. 

For example, the Philippines, which already generates about one-tenth of its electricity through renewables, will begin a feasibility study with South Korea come 2025, aiming to assess reopening the dormant Bataan Nuclear Power Plant.

Dr Zulfikar said that nuclear energy remains “a viable option for energy transition, despite its complexity”.

Experts noted that nuclear may play an increasing role in the long-term future, especially as countries seek to diversify their energy portfolio. 

Beyond barriers presented by public perception, concerns remain over the feasibility of deployment of nuclear energy in land-scarce Singapore, including where to site a nuclear power plant, Dr Chung from SNRSI noted.

But he added that safety advancements in nuclear reactor technologies reduce the probability of severe accidents or contamination, and it would be "at least prudent" to study the possibility of nuclear more deeply. 

"We should also not limit ourselves to choosing only either renewable source like solar or nuclear. The energy mix could include all sources available to Singapore and they will complement one another," said Dr Chung. 

Keeping in mind the needs of a small and "alternative energy-disadvantaged nation", Singapore authorities have emphasised a "four switches" approach to increase the sustainability of power supply – namely natural gas, solar, regional power grids and low-carbon alternatives.

Similarly, Singapore's neighbours are likely to find a range of sources to meet climate and energy needs, experts said. 

While natural gas is likely to be a "key transitional fuel", nuclear energy may contribute to the region's energy mix in the longer term, Dr Zulfikar from ACE said.

At the same time, advancements in the renewables field will also help to expand the region's capacity to deploy renewable energy.

"In the coming decades, ASEAN's energy mix will diversify, with renewables like solar, wind, and geothermal playing a larger role, supported by energy storage technologies," he noted. 

Agreeing, Dr Nian said Southeast Asian nations will need to continue to take a "portfolio approach" to diversify their sources of energy, especially green energy. 

If deemed appropriate, carbon capture and storage, bioenergy and hydrogen could all potentially play a part in the region's future low carbon technology portfolio, he said.

"Nuclear may play an increasing role in the long-term future, but it will not be the only source."