Russia-Ukraine war appears to be escalating, but Putin is unlikely to turn to nuclear weapons: Experts

Russia’s launch of a hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile into Ukraine signals an escalation in the war between both sides, but it is unlikely to change the status quo, analysts said on Friday (Nov 22).

Moscow attacked the city of Dnipro on Thursday in response to the United States and United Kingdom allowing Kyiv to strike Russian territory with advanced weapons for the first time. 

Moscow’s actions came two days after Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree lowering the threshold for using nuclear weapons.

The White House, the UK and the European Union condemned this move as "irresponsible".

Putin has made it “very clear” that his threats need to be taken seriously and should not be considered as drawing red lines that can be crossed, said Alexey Muraviev, associate professor of national security and strategic studies at Curtin University.

“It was a very direct warning … A threat from a nuclear superpower directed at another three nuclear-armed nations,” he told CNA938, referring to Ukraine allies US, UK and France.

This past week, US President Joe Biden lifted a ban on Kyiv using Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles beyond its own borders. A few days later, Ukraine fired UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles into Russian territory for the first time.

PUTIN WAITING FOR TRUMP’S RETURN

However, Matthew Sussex, whose research specialisations revolve around national security and strategic studies with a particular focus on Russia and Eurasia, said it is “very unlikely” that Putin would resort to nuclear weapons.

This is because of the short runway before Donald Trump will return to the White House as the 47th US president, he added.

The Russians have previously shot numerous different types of missiles which, similar to the ones used on Thursday, have nuclear tips on them, he noted.

“Putin feels that he can get a much more sympathetic ear from President Trump 2.0 than he can from Biden,” said Sussex, who is associate professor at the Griffith Asia Institute at Griffith University.

“I think the strategic risks of this are perhaps not as significant as they might seem on first blush.”

Sussex noted that in spite of the rhetoric coming from the Putin regime, there has been a desire to carefully avoid bringing the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) military alliance into the conflict, as it would guarantee Russia losing the war.

He pointed out that Russian forces have barely been able to make inroads into Ukraine after over 1,000 days.

“This is much more aimed at the Western public, to make them fear the prospect of (a) nuclear holocaust and to make them worry about the potential for escalation,” he said.

PACE OF WAR TO PICK UP

At the same time, however, in line with what Ukraine's former foreign affairs minister Dmytro Kuleba told BBC, Sussex said the pace of the conflict is expected to pick up in anticipation of the uncertainty a Trump presidency would bring.

While winter will make the situation harder as soldiers battle harsh conditions, both sides will try to hold on to as many “bargaining chips” as possible to prepare for a possible end in the war, he added.

During his election campaign, Trump repeatedly threatened to cut off aid to Ukraine, saying he will end the war within 24 hours if he becomes president.

“Putin may decide that he can afford to continue on and put more pressure on the Trump administration to, in turn, pressure Kyiv and pressure European countries to get the … victor's peace that he wants,” said Sussex. 

However, he noted that Trump potentially faces blowback from both sides of the aisle if he abandons Ukraine, given the generally bipartisan support for Ukraine.

On Kyiv’s part, the country may not have enough ammunition to achieve its aims, said Muraviev.

“The West would not be prepared to simply clean itself dry in order to give Ukraine what it wants and wishes,” he added.

“The Russians continue to press along the battle lines in several critical Ukrainian strongholds in the eastern part of the country. (They) are not just under siege, they are virtually being overrun by the Russians.

“I haven't really seen any change in battlefield dynamics in that sense.”