ASEAN has to maintain centrality amid rising global tensions, security threats: Observers

KUALA LUMPUR: The defence ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) need to maintain the bloc’s centrality in navigating regional security threats, particularly in the hotly contested South China Sea, said observers. 

This comes as they gathered in Penang for the ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting (ADMM) Retreat, which began on Tuesday (Feb 25) amid a changing world order.

The aim of the summit is to strengthen mutual trust and confidence among member states to better respond to security challenges.

GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

Malaysian Defence Minister Mohamed Khaled Nordin, in a press briefing on Tuesday, outlined several key areas he will be discussing with his ASEAN counterparts amid the changing geopolitical landscape. 

These include understanding the impact of artificial intelligence on regional security, advancing the region’s defence supply chain, and establishing a humanitarian relief taskforce to tackle natural disasters due to climate change.

Malaysia is the chair of ASEAN this year. 

On maritime security, Mr Khaled warned against military built up in the region, and urged countries with overlapping claims to resolve their disputes through diplomatic channels.  

"As for challenges of South China Sea, there is a need for all of us to ensure freedom of navigation, observe international law and try to not make this area as a place of contestation of superpowers," he added.

Southeast Asia faces many challenges, especially with tensions rising between China and the United States, said observers.

Member states have found themselves pulled in different directions, complicating efforts to reach consensus on geopolitical matters.

Earlier this month, Mr Khaled said ASEAN centrality “is very important”, especially in the South China Sea, referring to the principle that the bloc should maintain a leading role in regional cooperation and diplomacy.

This is the only way “we will be able to face whatever challenges that are coming to this region and also the rest of the world”, he added.

The world is in “a very extraordinary period of developments” with ongoing conflicts, and how some alliances are breaking down while new ones are coming up, said Ms Sharon Seah, coordinator of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute's ASEAN Studies Centre.

Southeast Asia, for instance, has to manage its relationship with the US under the unpredictable Trump administration. 

“I think a very realistic and pragmatic assessment needs to be done,” Ms Seah told CNA938. 

SOLVING MARITIME DISPUTES

Meanwhile, ASEAN and China have been slowly forging a path towards a peaceful resolution in the disputed waters of the South China Sea.

However, an early conclusion of a code of conduct to manage disputes has been elusive.

The slow progress over negotiations for a code to manage South China Sea disputes peacefully shows that “there are sticking points”, said defence analyst Zakaria Ahmad of the Malaysian Armed Forces Defence College. 

“(Also) when you have the code of conduct, what does it mean? Does it mean it can be enforced or not? That's going to be tough.”

Ms Seah said: “I think communication is really important at this point, because we want to avoid any kind of miscommunication. It could lead to accidental conflict. I think that's the most worrying aspect coming out of the South China Sea.”

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim recently urged the conclusion of negotiations on the code of conduct “as soon as possible” to resolve the dispute among maritime neighbours. 

With China claiming almost the entire South China Sea, reaching an agreement on the code would help safeguard peace in the region, said analysts. 

But this is an uphill task, they added. 

Ms Susannah Patton, director of the Southeast Asia programme at Australia-based think tank Lowy Institute, highlighted how even reaching an agreement over the basics, such as the geographical area the code should cover and whether it would be legally binding, has proven difficult. 

“There are still some very basic contradictions in what Southeast Asian countries and China would be willing to accept when it comes to the code of conduct negotiations,” she told CNA's Asia Now. 

“And those are not the kind of differences that can be papered over simply by a prime minister or a foreign minister or any other leader saying that they want the negotiations to be concluded as soon as possible.”