Analysis: Indonesia local elections in November a high-stakes test for President-elect Prabowo

JAKARTA: Much is at stake in Indonesia’s upcoming local elections in November and the outcomes could shape the political landscape and determine the country’s progress over the next five years, said analysts.

For one thing, the results could have far-reaching implications which may impact subsequent elections beyond this one, with politicians hoping that a win later this year will also set the stage for their parties to do well in the 2029 presidential and legislative elections.

And for incoming President-elect Prabowo Subianto, the results of the upcoming local elections - which will be held nationwide simultaneously for the first time - will set the tone for the working relationship between the national and regional governments. 

On Nov 27, Indonesians will head to the ballot box to elect their local leaders - namely 37 governors, 93 mayors, 415 regents as well as their respective deputies. 

Out of Indonesia’s 38 provinces, the only one that will not choose a governor is Yogyakarta, as it is the only region in the archipelago run by a sultan.

The registration of potential candidates opened on Aug 27 and will close on Thursday (Aug 29). 

Since the local elections will be held under Indonesia’s new government, the incoming national leaders have a vested interest in it, said Mdm Titi Anggraini, an election law lecturer at the University of Indonesia. 

Mr Prabowo, alongside Vice-President-elect Gibran Rakabuming Raka, will only be inaugurated on Oct 20 following their victory during February’s presidential and legislative elections. 

“So the national political elites will undoubtedly be very interested in the results of the 2024 regional elections (in November) as it will shape their national political leadership and the direction of politics going forward,” said Mdm Titi.

CONTROVERSIES THUS FAR

Even before voting day, the local elections have been marred by controversies that have sparked public outrage in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy, testing its hard-won democracy. 

The biggest controversy thus far is when parliamentarians last week wanted to override a Constitutional Court ruling on age eligibility and electoral thresholds for the upcoming local elections.

On Aug 20, the Constitutional Court - which is Indonesia’s top court - issued a ruling lowering the threshold for parties to nominate a candidate in the regional elections in order to field a candidate.

This allows for the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) -  which has not formed a coalition with other political parties - to nominate a candidate in the Jakarta gubernatorial election. 

The court also upheld the minimum age limit for gubernatorial candidates to 30 years, which prevents President Joko Widodo’s youngest son, 29-year-old Kaesang Pangarep from contesting.

However, lawmakers in the House of Representatives (DPR) wanted to annul the Constitutional Court’s decisions the following day, which then triggered an online movement condemning the move. 

Thousands took to the streets in several big cities on Aug 22 in one of the country’s biggest protests in the past five years. 

Mr Hari Fitrianto, a political lecturer at Surabaya's Airlangga University, said that the controversy this time around is similar to the issue that surrounded February’s presidential election. 

Back then, Mr Gibran, 36, could only run in the election as a vice-presidential candidate after the Constitutional Court expanded the candidacy requirements for presidential and vice-presidential hopefuls to include elected officials younger than 40, which was the minimum age requirement then. 

Mr Gibran is the older of President Widodo’s two sons and the Constitutional Court at the time was headed by his uncle, Mr Anwar Usman. 

“The controversy surrounding the regional election is the same as the one surrounding the presidential election. There is an attempt to change the law, especially concerning the minimum age of the candidates,” said Mr Hari.

“And people believe that this attempt is so that President Jokowi’s son (Kaesang) can be a contestant in this local election,” he added, addressing the president by his famous nickname. 

But ultimately, following the public outcry, the legislature said that it will not make changes to the election rules under the current government’s term. 

Meanwhile, Mdm Titi highlighted other issues, including how Mr Widodo appears keen to influence the local elections - similar to how he had previously admitted to meddling in the February presidential elections - as a means to remain influential even after stepping down from the presidency in October. 

On the national level, a grand coalition exists with the Advanced Indonesia Coalition which successfully backed Mr Prabowo and Mr Gibran during the February presidential election. 

They include parties that are in parliament such as Golkar, Gerindra, the Democratic Party, and the National Mandate Party (PAN). 

In recent weeks, the National Democratic Party (Nasdem), National Awakening Party (PKB), and Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) decided to join the Advanced Indonesia Coalition, effectively leaving PDI-P alone with no coalition on a national level. These three parties had previously formed their own coalition, backing former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan as a presidential candidate. He ultimately lost to Mr Prabowo. 

However, political parties may form different coalitions on a regional level for the November elections. 

Mdm Titi - the law lecturer - pointed out that Mr Widodo is trying to replicate the Advanced Indonesia Coalition for the local elections by influencing the different political parties.

“The dominance, hegemony, and control of Jokowi as the incumbent president who will end his term but still has significant influence in the government are among the biggest highlights of this simultaneous regional elections contestation.

“The controversy concerns efforts to duplicate and replicate the Advanced Indonesia Coalition in the regional elections,” said Mdm Titi. 

She cited, for example, the nomination of Golkar member and former West Java governor Ridwan Kamil and PKS member Suswono in the Jakarta regional elections, despite the former having a higher electability rating in West Java.

They are backed by a grand coalition consisting of at least 13 parties. 

Mdm Titi believes that the duo was forced to be paired and run in Jakarta, so that potential candidates who are not members of political parties have limited chances to run in the gubernatorial election there.

WHERE ARE THE KEY BATTLEGROUNDS?

Analysts told CNA that Indonesia’s most populated island, Java, will be the key battleground as more than half of the country’s 280 million people live there.

Mr Hari - the political lecturer - said West, Central and East Java, which together boasts a population of about 130 million people, will be key provinces to keep a lookout for.

But the spotlight will be on Jakarta, he asserted.

The Jakarta governor position, once held by Mr Widodo for two years before he was elected president in 2014, is widely regarded as a stepping stone to the presidency.

Apart from Mr Ridwan Kamil and his running mate Suswono, two other pairs are also eyeing the Jakarta gubernatorial position.

Indonesia’s largest party, PDI-P, has chosen its members: Cabinet secretary Pramono Anung and actor-turned-politician Rano Karno. 

Meanwhile, retired police commissioner General Dharma Pongrekun and Mr Kun Wardana Abyoto are running as an independent pair.

However, Mdm Titi noted that other big provinces such as North Sumatra and South Sulawesi are also important and will be closely watched. 

“Especially regions where candidates are running who have ties to Jokowi, for example, North Sumatra with Bobby, will definitely get a lot of attention from the public because this is related to whether Jokowi will still have power through leaders chosen from this local election,” said Mdm Titi, referring to Mr Widodo’s son-in-law Bobby Nasution who is running for the North Sumatra governorship. 

Mr Wasisto Raharjo Jati, a political analyst with Indonesia’s National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), agreed that the gubernatorial battle in North Sumatra will be fierce.

Mr Bobby, currently the mayor of North Sumatra’s capital Medan, is backed by the Advanced Indonesia Coalition and is set to face Mr Edy Rahmayadi, who is endorsed by PDI-P. 

Mr Edy, a retired general, was North Sumatra’s governor from 2018 to 2023 and former chief of the Indonesian football association.

“This will also be a kind of political test to see whether the Jokowi effect still lasts,” said Mr Wasisto, referring to Mr Widodo’s influence in ensuring Mr Prabowo and Mr Gibran’s victory during February’s presidential election. 

WHAT’S AT STAKE?

The November local elections will have strategic implications for the next presidential and legislative elections in 2029, said political analyst Mr Ujang Komarudin from Al Azhar University Indonesia.

“The (political) party whose members or cadres will win the most will be strong, which means the party may win in the next presidential and legislative elections in 2029. Therefore, political parties will go all out to win this simultaneous election,” he said.

Mr Hari from Airlangga University added that the situation is complex since the local elections are held simultaneously across the archipelago for the first time in the same year as the presidential and legislative elections.

“Even though it is called the local elections aimed at choosing local leaders, it is actually just like choosing national leaders,” said Mr Hari.

The election commission will announce the candidates’ eligibility on Sep 22, and campaigning will then start nationwide from Sep 25 to Nov 23. 

The February presidential and legislative election winners have yet to be inaugurated during this week’s registration period, as they will only take office in October. 

Therefore, analysts said that the incoming government wants to install leaders who can follow and carry out the national government’s programmes in the next five years. 

Mr Wasisto from BRIN said: “This regional election is important and different. One reason is that there were the presidential and legislative elections in February, which impacts the formation of political party coalitions and nominations of regional head candidates in the local elections.

SIGNIFICANCE FOR INCOMING PRESIDENT PRABOWO

For incoming president Prabowo, the local elections will be crucial, partly as it is a test of the strength of the grand coalition supporting him, analysts said. 

“It is very important because the winning candidates in the strategic regions such as Java … must have the same views as him (Prabowo) so that national development goes hand in hand with regional development,” said Mr Ujang from Al Azhar University Indonesia. 

“If the leaders are from the opposition or his political opponent, then the decisions made at the national level will not be implemented on the ground. They won’t be executed.”  

Mr Ujang added that this means that some of Mr Prabowo’s presidential election campaign promises may not be implemented should the opposition win big in the local elections. 

He said, for example, that when former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan led the capital from 2017 to 2022, he was known for not aligning with Mr Widodo’s national agendas.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the national government and the Jakarta government had different views on how to handle the pandemic, Mr Ujang added.

“This is what Prabowo does not want. So the local leaders need to have the same views and work rhythm to implement the national development policies in the regions.”

Mr Wasisto - the political analyst - added that the local elections will test the strength of Mr Prabowo’s Advanced Indonesia Coalition and the commitments of the various political parties.

The upcoming local election will also be Mr Prabowo’s first big political agenda after assuming office on Oct 20, Mdm Titi highlighted. 

“Of course, this political agenda will affect Mr Prabowo’s image and credibility nationally and abroad,” she said.

“Especially how the public and the international community view Mr Prabowo’s position in holding a democratic event. Regionally and globally, Mr Prabowo, of course, is interested in convincing the world that Indonesia’s democracy functions smoothly and does not face regression.”

Mdm Titi said this is because there are concerns about how Mr Prabowo will lead the country in the next five years, given his military background and him being the former son-in-law of authoritarian president Suharto.

“So we can conclude that the local election will be a very strategic and important contest to determine the implementation of programmes in the next five years,” Mdm Titi added.