IN FOCUS: High stakes in Indonesia’s regional elections for Prabowo, Megawati amid power play

JAKARTA: Indonesia will hold simultaneous regional elections next Wednesday (Nov 27), the largest in its history, to elect local leaders who will be instrumental in driving Southeast Asia’s biggest economy.

A total of 545 positions are contested and Indonesians will elect 37 governors, 93 mayors, and 415 regents. Of the country’s 38 provinces, only Yogyakarta will not be voting for a governor as it is run by a sultan.

While the regional elections are arguably lower on the international radar than February’s presidential and legislative elections, they are still worth watching for rising political stars as well as the power play by key political factions led by new president Prabowo Subianto and former presidents Joko Widodo and Megawati Soekarnoputri.

Regional leaders set the tone of the working relationship between the national government and their respective provinces, regencies and cities. In addition, they wield influence in attracting foreign investments and forging cross-border partnerships, analysts say.

The regional elections are also seen as a test of Indonesia’s democracy under former general Mr Prabowo, who took office on Oct 20. 

A week before the big day, CNA takes stock of the issues on voters’ minds, key battlegrounds, candidates who have made headlines, and implications for the country and beyond.

ISSUES AT PLAY AND POWER TUSSLE

Poverty eradication and equitable welfare distribution are the broad issues that candidates have pledged to address for Indonesia’s 280 million people. 

These issues, which include access to education, healthcare and infrastructure, are also “very local”, noted Mr Made Supriatma, a political expert and visiting research fellow at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

There are also problems unique to certain regions – traffic congestion, air pollution and flooding in Jakarta, for instance. 

The metropolis, which is witnessing a close race for governor between the two leading candidates, is also set to lose its status as the country’s capital to Nusantara in eastern Kalimantan, although the exact date has not been decided.

In mineral-rich regions such as Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi and Papua, local leaders must manage resources well by tackling illegal mining, environmental degradation and other issues. 

Java, meanwhile, is where factories tend to be located.

This means business interests and the regional elections are “inseparable”, said Madam Titi Anggraini, an election law lecturer at the University of Indonesia.

“In areas rich in natural resources, there is a struggle between business people backing particular candidates because they think they must ensure the security of their investments and businesses,” she added.  

This time around, business groups have backed some candidates. Apart from donations, this entails sending volunteers to campaign for them or, when a business person is famous, endorsing them to garner more votes. 

Jakarta governor candidate Ridwan Kamil is backed by a group of entrepreneurs called Pengusaha Pejuang Bersatu, for instance.

The group’s advisory board chairman is Mr Ryan Haroen, a director in property developer PT Maskapai Pembangunan Industri Sumatra and a shareholder of a coffee shop. 

Central Java governor candidate Ahmad Luthfi is supported by a group of business people called Pengusaha Sahabat Ahmad Luthfi-Taj Yasin, which has helped campaign for him together with Mr Widodo’s youngest child Kaesang Pangarep. Mr Kaesang is himself an entrepreneur and his family is from the province’s city of Solo. He is also chairman of the political party Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI).

With the regional elections taking place just nine months after February’s presidential and legislative elections, analysts see an extension of the power play by Mr Prabowo’s Advance Indonesia Coalition (KIM) and former president Megawati Soekarnoputri’s Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).

Mr Prabowo’s big-tent coalition of political parties has been dubbed the KIM Plus, and is widely seen to be backed by his predecessor, Mr Widodo. 

It originally comprised the country’s second-biggest party Golkar, Mr Prabowo’s Gerindra party, the Democratic Party and the National Mandate Party (PAN), and currently forms the government with several other parties. 

Mdm Megawati’s PDI-P, on the other hand, won the legislative election and is the country’s largest party. 

It has not indicated if it supports Mr Prabowo’s KIM Plus or will serve as the opposition. No PDI-P member has been appointed to Mr Prabowo’s Cabinet.

“What is so special about this election compared to other (previous) regional elections is that … the KIM Plus coalition dominates this election,” said Mr Made.

Former president Widodo also “has a hand in this election”, added Mr Made. “He is not with a political party, but he still has loyal followers especially in Java – in Central and East Java.”

Mr Widodo has also endorsed KIM Plus' Jakarta candidate Mr Ridwan and its Central Java candidate Ahmad Luthfi. 

This has upped the stakes in some battlegrounds, where members of the KIM Plus are trying to wrest PDI-P strongholds from the incumbents.

A KEY BATTLEGROUND: JAKARTA

Jakarta’s gubernatorial election is the most-watched, given its seat at the centre of the country’s politics and economy, said Mr Wasisto Raharjo Jati, a political analyst with Indonesia’s National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN).

As Mr Widodo was Jakarta’s governor for two years before he was elected president in 2014, it is widely regarded as a stepping stone to the presidency.

“This is why candidates are fighting tooth and nail to win the Jakarta seat,” said Mr Wasisto, adding that the path to the presidency may be less clear once Nusantara is the official capital. 

The two frontrunners in the three-horse race are KIM Plus coalition’s Mr Ridwan, who is a former West Java governor, and former cabinet secretary Pramono Anung. 

Mr Pramono is the PDI-P’s candidate.

The third candidate, retired police Commissioner General Dharma Pongrekun, is running independently.

According to a survey conducted from Oct 31 to Nov 9 by pollster Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting, Mr Pramono, 61, is leading with a support level of 46 per cent, followed by Mr Ridwan, 53, at 39.1 per cent. Mr Dharma, 58, is trailing at 5.1 per cent.

Mr Ridwan and his running mate Suswono want to continue reclamation projects in northern Jakarta while ensuring the monthly incomes of fishermen living nearby. 

Mr Pramono and his running mate, actor-turned politician Rano Karno, have pledged access to 500,000 jobs by holding job fairs every three months at every sub-district.

Mr Dharma and his running mate Kun Wardana Abyoto have said they want to improve Jakarta’s spatial design to overcome its notorious traffic snarls.

All three pairs have drawn some controversy in their campaign. 

Mr Ridwan and Mr Pramono were called out for sexist tweets they made in the past, while Mr Ridwan’s running mate Suswono recently apologised for joking that wealthy widows should marry unemployed young men to tackle poverty.

Mr Dharma was criticised for saying he would eliminate red lights to overcome congestion, and later clarified he did not intend to eliminate all red lights.

If no candidate receives more than 50 per cent of the vote, Jakarta’s gubernatorial election will head into a run-off between the two leading candidates in early 2025. It is the only province where the election can go into a second round. 

Mr Ridwan’s and Mr Pramono’s teams struck a confident note when asked about their chances.

“Our strategy for the last two weeks is to send teams massively who campaign door-to-door and use social media. And according to the latest (internal) survey, thank God we are still ahead,” said Mr Abdul Aziz, a campaign coordinator for Mr Ridwan and Mr Suswono.

“We are optimistic we will win Jakarta in one round,” he told CNA.

The PDI-P pair is also “very optimistic”, with PDI-P spokesperson Chico Hakim saying: “The trend is an increase (of electability) for us and a decrease in Ridwan-Suswono.”

“Perhaps people are bored because Ridwan has long been known, but people are starting to get to know Mr Pramono and Mr Rano and can see the strength of their visions, their seriousness, and their knowledge about Jakarta,” he added.

OTHER BATTLEGROUNDS: CENTRAL JAVA AND NORTH SUMATRA

High-stakes contests are also playing out in Central Java and North Sumatra. 

In Central Java, the competition to become the province’s governor is neck and neck, with former military chief and retired four-star general Andika Perkasa facing off against two-star police general Ahmad Luthfi.

On top of an indirect competition between the military and police, Mr Andika, 59, is supported by PDI-P while the KIM coalition endorses 57-year-old Mr Ahmad. 

Surveys this month by two pollsters – Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting, and Indikator Politik Indonesia – show the race is currently too close to call. They show Mr Andika and his running mate Hendrar Prihadi with 43.5 to 50.4 per cent of support, while Mr Ahmad and his running mate Taj Yasin Maimoen have 47 to 47.2 per cent.

Mr Andika has said he will focus on eradicating poverty, while Mr Ahmad is campaigning for people to eat fish to help fishermen.

North Sumatra is another race to watch, said Mr Made of ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.  

In the biggest province on the island, Mr Widodo’s son-in-law Bobby Nasution is running – and leading – against the PDI-P’s Edy Rahmayadi.

Mr Bobby, 33, is the mayor of Medan, the capital of North Sumatra, while Mr Edy, 63, was the governor of North Sumatra until Sep 2023.

Pollster Indikator Politik Indonesia surveyed 2,290 people between Oct 28 and Nov 4 and found that Mr Bobby’s electability is higher at 62 per cent, compared to Mr Edy's at 29.1 per cent. 

Once considered a stronghold of the PDI-P, North Sumatra shifted its allegiance in February’s legislative election, which saw Golkar pipping the PDI-P to second place. 

This happened in the wake of Mr Widodo’s fallout with the PDI-P. 

Mr Widodo had risen to power in 2014 as a PDI-P member, but he did not back PDI-P’s presidential candidate Ganjar Pranowo in February’s presidential election. 

Instead, he was perceived by many to have tacitly supported Mr Prabowo, whose running mate was Mr Widodo’s oldest child Gibran Rakabuming Raka.

Post-presidency, observers have said Mr Widodo is in need of a political vehicle to maintain his influence in the country’s political landscape.

PRABOWO WADES IN, WHILE PDI-P SEEKS RELEVANCE AND LEVERAGE 

The fierce competition in some places has prompted President Prabowo to wade in and endorse certain candidates.

In an Instagram video released by Central Java candidate Ahmad Luthfi on Nov 9, for instance, Mr Prabowo called on the public to vote for Mr Luthfi and Mr Taj Yasin, saying they were “the right ones to lead Central Java”.

The president also appears to have endorsed Mr Ridwan in the Jakarta race, and Mr Made Muliawan in the Bali contest.

The Presidential Communications Office has said Mr Prabowo’s endorsement did not breach election rules.

Retired general Anto Mukti Putranto, head of Mr Ahmad’s campaign team and Mr Prabowo’s presidential chief of staff, said that according to the law, the president and ministers are allowed to campaign for candidates, as long as it is not done during office hours. 

“Mr Ahmad Luthfi and Taj Yasin met with Mr Prabowo on a Sunday,” Mr Anto told CNA.

But the PDI-P has said “it is not about whether it is allowed or not according to the law, but whether it is appropriate or not”. 

“Especially since he once said that he would not interfere with the regional elections,” PDI-P’s spokesperson Chico said, referring to remarks Mr Prabowo made at a National Mandate Party event in August.  

Mr Prabowo’s government will be able to implement his flagship initiatives like the free-meal programme more smoothly if his preferred candidates triumph, said Mr Nicky Fahrizal of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies think tank.

A cool relationship between a regional leader and the central government could mean provincial policies are not always in line with national directives, said Mr Nicky. 

For instance, when Mr Anies Baswedan was Jakarta governor from 2017 to 2022, the city’s policies during the COVID-19 pandemic were not fully aligned with federal regulations regarding lockdowns. 

There were instances when the national government wanted to ease movement restrictions but Mr Anies felt it was not the right time, or that restrictions should in fact be tightened. 

Mr Anies’ relationship with then-president Mr Widodo is widely believed to have become distant after the latter fired him as education minister in 2016.

But even if the relationship between the central and federal governments is not the best, the national government will still have the final say on big issues as most regions get their budget from the federal government, said election law lecturer Mdm Titi.

This includes the budget for education, health, public services as well as tourism. 

Ultimately, regional governments have limited bargaining power but they can be spoilers. 

The stakes are just as high for PDI-P chairperson Megawati, who has appeared in Central Java to help rally support for the party’s candidates. Analysts note that if PDI-P’s candidates win in the regional elections, it would give the party the boost it needs to remain relevant in the coming years. 

If the PDI-P wins in several key provinces, Mdm Megawati may have more leverage should she decide to join Mr Prabowo’s government, they said.  

For instance, PDI-P could have more bargaining power in asking for Cabinet posts. 

DOMESTIC STABILITY MATTERS TO FOREIGN INVESTORS

To the international community, the regional elections is a test for Mr Prabowo to show Indonesia’s democracy in action and demonstrate his prowess in rolling out domestic policies.

Mdm Titi noted this is important because there are concerns about how Mr Prabowo will lead the country in the next five years, given his military background and being the former son-in-law of authoritarian president Suharto.

"If this election runs well, it will further strengthen Indonesia in the context of global democracy, including in the region," said Mdm Titi.

It will also contribute to a stable domestic environment, which could lead to more foreign investment opportunities for Southeast Asia’s largest economy, analysts said.

Mr Mochammad Afifuddin, head of Indonesia’s national election commission, said on Nov 10 that Central Java province and the Papua region are the most vulnerable to instability in this election. 

This is due to the tight race in Central Java, and low-level insurgencies seen in Papua for many years. 

Central Java has many factories including Kendal Industrial Park, a joint venture between Singapore’s Sembcorp Development and  Indonesia’s industrial estate developer PT Jababeka.

Meanwhile, Papua is home to PT Freeport Indonesia, one of the world’s largest gold and copper companies in which the US has a major stake. 

Mr Wasisto from BRIN highlighted that investments are ultimately carried out in regions, not only Jakarta. 

Governors and mayors may secure investments and are encouraged to attract foreign investors and build cross-border partnerships with other countries like Singapore, although the central government is usually also involved when it comes to larger projects.

Regional heads may also make local regulations and oversee land provision and infrastructure development, which could determine how costly it is to invest in a particular region.

“Ultimately, what people will be looking for is stability. If the democratic process is good in a region, of course, stability is easier to achieve,” said Mr Wasisto.