Malaysia’s ASEAN chairmanship in 2025 could test bloc’s unity and ties with China

JOHOR BAHRU: As Malaysia prepares to take over the 2025 chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), its recent foreign policy shift in cosying up to the likes of China and Russia could translate into more active collaboration between these countries and the regional bloc. 

This could prompt concern from some ASEAN members and test the bloc’s unity, but is unlikely to alter its cohesion, analysts say.

Malaysia is expected to ceremonially take over as ASEAN chair at the end of the ASEAN Summit in Vientiane on Friday (Oct 11), with Laotian Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone to hand over the gavel to Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. The chairmanship is rotated annually among the 10 member states in alphabetical order.

Malaysia’s chairmanship is unlikely to alter the bloc’s direction significantly given its decision-making process grants the chair influence but not the power to make unilateral decisions, experts say. 

However, Putrajaya’s recalibrated foreign policy of pursuing closer ties with the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) group of emerging economies and its vocal pro-Palestinian stance amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza could test unity among ASEAN member countries, some say. 

Under Malaysia’s leadership, they also expect ASEAN to impose stronger actions on the human rights crisis in Myanmar as well as raise territorial disputes in the South China Sea with China.  

“While Malaysia’s foreign policy priorities and closer ties with Russia and China may prompt concern from some ASEAN partners, the structural constraints of ASEAN’s decision-making process will likely prevent any major disruptions to the bloc's cohesion,” foreign policy expert Joanne Lin told CNA.

“Nonetheless, these moves could test the unity of ASEAN, particularly in how its members navigate relations with competing global powers,” added Ms Lin, who is senior fellow and co-coordinator of the ASEAN Studies Centre in Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. 

MALAYSIA COULD BROADEN ASEAN TIES WITH BRICS, MIDDLE EAST 

Analysts say Malaysia will likely want to maintain ASEAN’s neutrality and ensure that its relationships with major powers remain balanced. 

However, at the same time, they stressed that Putrajaya will likely use its chairmanship as a platform to further its causes such as forging ties with BRICS leaders and continuing to be vocal on the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

They cited Mr Anwar’s visit to Vladivostok last month, during which he invited Russian president Vladimir Putin to attend next year’s ASEAN Summit, which will be chaired by Malaysia. The move is likely to ruffle feathers among some of its ASEAN partners, some analysts believe.

Dr Azmi Hassan, a senior fellow at the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, told CNA that Malaysia’s chairmanship will be a test of its diplomatic skills and it will likely push for ASEAN to work with the likes of China and Russia, alongside the United States and the West. 

“Malaysia will want to position ASEAN to be more central, neutral, meaning it is likely to push for the bloc to speak with other nations, including the BRICs nations. Malaysia will be proactive and not want ASEAN to be sidelined from forging ties with global superpowers across all sides,” said Dr Azmi. 

Mr Anwar himself has indicated as much.

“We may go beyond ASEAN, as we explore partnerships with BRICS, which will deepen global South-South relationships,” he said at the Khazanah Megatrends Forum 2024 in Kuala Lumpur on Monday.

“We reiterate the paramount importance of adhering to a rules-based order, regionally and internationally, but we reject the hypocrisy and double standards observed by those when it suits them,” he said.

Global developments, particularly the ongoing conflict in Gaza, have prompted Malaysia to “recalibrate its foreign policy”, observed Ms Lin of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.

“This shift includes a more cautious stance towards the US and other allies of Israel, while adopting a more vocal pro-Palestinian position,” she said.

“In tandem, Malaysia has strengthened ties with China, showing increased interest in China-led groupings like BRICS. Closer relations with BRICS members such as Russia signal Malaysia's broader ambition to diversify its economy, reduce dependence on Western-led financial institutions, and forge deeper connections with the Global South, including countries in the Middle East,” she added. 

“Malaysia’s growing alignment with China and BRICS countries, including Russia and India, could translate into more active collaboration in economic and diplomatic initiatives led by these countries,” said Ms Lin.

Malaysia may, for instance, push for stronger engagement between ASEAN and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and for an ASEAN-GCC summit to bolster Putrajaya’s domestic standing and regional influence, she said.

That said, there are limits to the extent Malaysia, as chairman, can set ASEAN’s direction. 

“Despite these shifts, Malaysia's chairmanship is unlikely to radically alter ASEAN's broader relationships with the US and other Western powers. ASEAN’s consensus-based decision-making ensures that the chair’s influence, while important, is not unilateral,” she added. 

Malaysia is simply broadening its diplomatic space by seeking to join BRICS, and like other countries in the region, is willing to work with the likes of China, Russia and the West, said Dr Abdul Rahman Yaacob, research fellow in the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute in Sydney.

“Many Southeast Asian officials I spoke to understand and accept Malaysia's approach to its foreign policy, that it is Malaysia's right to have closer relations with Russia and China. That is the basis of ASEAN – non-interference in the affairs of the other states,” said Dr Abdul Rahman. 

On Mr Anwar’s invite to Mr Putin to next year’s Summit, he said that it would be natural for some ASEAN members, the US and European Union to be concerned. But the Russian president could decide to join the summit virtually to “not put Malaysia in a difficult position”, he said.

In a speech at the ASEAN Summit in Laos on Wednesday, Mr Anwar outlined commitment to the bloc’s pledge to centrality and called for member states to stay united amid geopolitical tensions around the world. 

“As global tensions continue to rise, and polarisation appears to prevail over integration, cracks and divisions within ASEAN run the risk of being exploited to the detriment of ASEAN centrality and cohesiveness,” he said. 

“It behoves us, ASEAN member states, to reject overtures that are predisposed to cause division.”

ASEAN must send a “clear message to the world” that it will remain united and continue to be a “key driver of peace, security and cooperation in the region”, Mr Anwar said.

HOW WILL ASEAN NAVIGATE ISSUES WITH CHINA? 

One of the key challenges of Malaysia’s chairmanship would be to navigate ASEAN’s relations with China, analysts say.

Malaysia and China celebrate their 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations this year, and Malaysia’s king Sultan Ibrahim Iskandar visited Beijing last month and met Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang. 

After the trip, Sultan Ibrahim praised China’s stance on Israel with regards to the current war in Gaza, and said Malaysia was aligned with China on the issue of peace in Palestine.

At the same time, however, China claims almost the entire South China Sea, while several ASEAN members including Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei and Vietnam have overlapping claims. 

Mr Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations in the US, told CNA that Malaysia will be forced to balance pursuing stronger ties with China and leading efforts to defend its and ASEAN members’ sovereign rights in the South China Sea. 

“There will probably be some point, such as a dispute over blocks of oil or gas development in the South China Sea, at which Malaysia's multilateralism and warm approach to China will be tested,” said Mr Kurlantzick.

Ms Lin outlined that Malaysia, as both the current country coordinator for ASEAN-China relations and a claimant state, has a significant stake in advancing the Code of Conduct negotiations, which ASEAN aims to finalise by 2026. 

“Malaysia will likely prioritise pushing these talks forward, emphasising ASEAN’s collective interest in ensuring a rules-based approach to the maritime disputes,” said Ms Lin.

“However, if Malaysia is perceived as leaning too closely toward China, it may face challenges in maintaining the trust of other claimant states, particularly the Philippines and Vietnam, which are more assertive in defending their territorial claims,” she added. 

MALAYSIA TO BE MORE OUTSPOKEN ON MYANMAR CRISIS 

At events and on social media in May and June this year, Mr Anwar stressed that ASEAN member states need to unite in facing the crisis in Myanmar. 

He hinted he would push for ASEAN to be tougher on Myanmar, where pro-democracy guerrillas and ethnic minority armed forces are battling the country’s military, which took power in 2021 after ousting the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi.

Weeks after seizing power during the 2021 coup, the junta agreed to a "five-point consensus" plan aimed at restoring peace, but ignored it and carried out a bloody crackdown on dissent and armed opposition to its rule.

Ms Lin of the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute posited that Malaysia, unlike the current chair Laos, is likely to advocate for stronger actions by ASEAN, in line with its historically vocal stance on human rights.

“Unlike some of its more reserved ASEAN counterparts, such as the current chair Laos, Malaysia has been outspoken about the crisis in Myanmar, particularly following the 2017 Rohingya repression, where it criticised ASEAN's weak response,” she said. 

“Given this legacy, Malaysia may push for more robust implementation of the five-point consensus while potentially raising the plight of the Rohingya once again, ensuring that their well-being is not overlooked amidst Myanmar’s ongoing ethnic conflicts,” she added. 

Lowy Institute’s Dr Abdul Rahman predicts Malaysia “transforming ASEAN’s approach to the crisis”. 

“For example, it should consider abandoning the troika and consensus decision-making approaches and establish a more minilateral platform to deal with the crisis,” said Dr Abdul Rahman. 

The ASEAN troika is a community body comprising the foreign ministers of the previous, present, and future chair countries of the bloc - presently Indonesia, Laos and Malaysia, respectively.

The troika is an informal ASEAN mechanism to coordinate and discuss the bloc's efforts on Myanmar. 

Dr Abdul Rahman said Malaysia could set up a committee consisting of ASEAN members who have more stake and interests in resolving the crisis. Members could include Thailand, which is directly threatened by the conflict as it shares a long border with Myanmar. 

“To my understanding, Thailand perceives that sometimes ASEAN ignores its concerns, and it has less voice as it is not part of the troika currently,” he added. 

WILL ANWAR PRESERVE ASEAN’S RELEVANCE? 

Under Malaysia’s chairmanship, ASEAN could also demonstrate it has enough political capital to defend its core interest in the Asia-Pacific and ensure it remains relevant in the long term. 

Whether it will make tangible progress is less certain, says Mr Kurlantzick. He predicted ASEAN would not see much progress in resolving the Myanmar crisis or territorial disputes in the South China Sea, possibly due to differing interests among the member countries. 

“The junta is beyond reach by anyone except perhaps China, and ASEAN has generally shown little interest or ability to do anything in Myanmar; and, the junta is suffering losses on a broader front as well,” said Mr Kurlantzick.

“I also think ASEAN isn't going to do much on the South China Sea, as its members are too divided to cohere into anything significant on the Sea, no matter who is chair,” he said. 

But progress could be made on other fronts.

As ASEAN chair, Malaysia could prioritise the full implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) - the world’s largest trade agreement, covering 15 countries with a combined GDP of almost US$30 trillion, said Ms Lin. The RCEP could potentially position ASEAN as a hub for regional growth and cooperation. 

Ms Lin also expects Malaysia to drive ASEAN’s Digital Economy Framework Agreement negotiations, launched in September 2023 to foster digital cooperation and add up to US$2 trillion to to region’s digital economy by 2030.

Mr Anwar spoke recently about his country’s ability to forge partnerships with industry leaders like Amazon and Microsoft, to position itself as a leading artificial intelligence (AI)-driven nation.

While Mr Anwar will likely use the ASEAN platform to “amplify" Malaysia’s foreign policy priorities such as championing South-South cooperation and strengthening relations with emerging powers, his approach is likely to be guided by his “diplomatic acumen” and commitment to ASEAN centrality, said Ms Lin.