World stocks gain ahead of 'formidable' week for risk; oil prices fall
NEW YORK/LONDON, Oct 26 : Global shares advanced on Monday, with investors focused on central bank meetings and a week of corporate earnings that will test confidence in the AI boom.
Oil prices retreated after Friday's strong gains, amid signs of easing hostilities in the Middle East. Still, prices remained near recent highs as persistent attacks on key producer Saudi Arabia kept traders wary. The Houthi group in Yemen said on Monday it had attacked Saudi Arabia's East-West crude oil pumping stations and Riyadh airport.
MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe rose 4.22 points, or 0.38 per cent, to 1,123.19.
On Wall Street, major indexes climbed on tech strength after Anthropic's initial public offering filing.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 146.42 points, or 0.28 per cent, to 52,361.58, the S&P 500 gained 53.09 points, or 0.7 per cent, to 7,676.77 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 214.04 points, or 0.83 per cent, to 26,169.38.
Brazilian stocks posted historic losses. The country's stock exchange halted trading via a circuit breaker safety mechanism on Monday after President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's reelection. His opponent refused to concede.
In Europe, stocks rebounded on corporate optimism. The STOXX 600 closed up 0.77 per cent, led by gains in British technology services provider Computacenter and Danish biotech Genmab.
ALPHABET, MICROSOFT, AMAZON AMONG REPORTING COMPANIES
Traders awaited multiple central bank meetings and earnings from AI hyperscalers. Earnings are in store from Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon, as one-third of S&P 500 companies report.
"The combination is formidable: megacap earnings, AI funding concerns, global semiconductor results, five major central bank meetings and potentially market-moving inflation and growth data," said Chris Weston, Pepperstone's head of research.
"The danger isn't simply that markets move sharply. It's that one catalyst changes the interpretation of the next, creating feedback loops across equities, rates, FX and volatility," Weston added.
New Zealand's central bank is widely expected to raise rates on Wednesday. Markets assume the US Federal Reserve will stand pat, but they imply an 80 per cent chance that it will hike rates in December. Much the same is priced in for the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank.
A key reading on US core inflation should show cost pressures remained elevated at 3.1 per cent in September, while the economy is forecast to have grown at a brisk 3.2 per cent annualized pace thanks in part to spending on data centers.
"The most important risk is that oil futures are above our forecasts, largely reflecting concerns about potential further conflict with Iran," analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note. "The more extreme and long-lasting the energy shock becomes, the more Fed participants will worry that inflationary pressures could broaden."
Emerging market stocks fell 15.13 points, or 0.96 per cent, to 1,562.91. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan closed 0.15 per cent lower at 1,505.49.
TREASURIES AND CURRENCIES
The Brazilian real plunged after the presidential election.
The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes was flat at 4.988 per cent. The yield on the benchmark German 10-year Bund rose.
In currency markets, the Japanese yen slipped 0.43 per cent, and the euro was down 0.25 per cent.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.34 per cent.
Sterling dipped 0.24 per cent, with Britain's new finance minister John Healey set to deliver his first budget on Wednesday amid rising global borrowing costs and high energy prices due to the US-Israeli war with Iran.
Spot gold rose 0.46 per cent to $4,013.79 an ounce, rebounding from the prior session's more than three-month low.
US gold futures settled 0.8 per cent higher at $4,038.40 per ounce.
Saudi Arabia, which along with Turkey and Pakistan was set to hold talks with Iranian officials in Tehran, said it was important to open channels for negotiations.
On Sunday, Qatari mediators traveled to Tehran to try to de-escalate regional tensions in coordination with the United States, an official briefed on the situation said.
Brent crude futures finished down 0.78 per cent at $115.81 per barrel, as US crude settled down 1.46 per cent at $101.76.
(Additional reporting by Wayne Cole in Sydney; Editing by Chris Reese, Thomas Derpinghaus, Alexander Smith, Keith Weir, Rod Nickel)
