Indonesia's inflation slightly above forecast, more rate cuts seen

JAKARTA :Indonesia's October headline and core inflation rates came in slightly above expectations, official data showed on Friday, but they remain relatively low and reinforce analysts' views that the central bank has room for further monetary easing.

Bank Indonesia (BI) cut interest rates in September and its governor has said it might further ease monetary policy given inflation is expected to stay low until 2025, but the timing of the next rate cut may depend on global market conditions. Its next policy meeting is on Nov. 19-20.

The October headline inflation rate was 1.71 per cent, Statistics Indonesia said, easing from 1.84 per cent in September and a touch above the 1.68 per cent predicted by analysts polled by Reuters.

The headline rate has been steadily slowing since March, with last month's rate the lowest in three years.

Core inflation, which strips out government-controlled prices and volatile food prices, was 2.21 per cent, the highest since July 2023, amid rising gold prices. Analysts had predicted a rate of 2.09 per cent, the same pace as in September.

The headline rate was near the lower end of BI's target range of 1.5 per cent and 3.5 per cent. The central bank does not have a target for core inflation, but its officials often say its interest rate policy is also aimed at managing core inflation, which better reflects demand pressures.

Some economists see headline inflation reversing its slowing trend soon, pressured by higher global energy prices and an increase in seasonal demand at the end of the year, but expect it to remain within BI's target range.

Josua Pardede, Bank Permata's economist, predicted year-end inflation at around 2.33 per cent and a further acceleration to 3.12 per cent by end-2025 due to a scheduled increase in value-added tax rate in January and other tax changes by fiscal authorities.

With the inflation rate staying within target and expectations of more U.S. rate cuts, BI has room to lower its benchmark by 25 to 50 bps more this year, he said.

Bank Mandiri economist Shahifa Assajjadiyyah also predicted headline inflation would pick up to around 2 per cent at the end of 2024 and that BI could cut the benchmark rate by another 25 bps in December.

She expected BI to stand pat this month, anticipating potential volatility in the currency market during next week's U.S. election. "For BI rate, we still expect BI to maintain this for rupiah stability," Shahifa said.