Japan set for third quarter of growth on solid domestic demand: Reuters poll
FILE PHOTO: Traffic signs in front of the Bank of Japan building in Tokyo, Japan, June 15, 2026. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo
TOKYO, Aug 7 : Japan's economy is expected to have expanded for a third straight quarter in April-June, as solid domestic demand and a decline in imports offset headwinds from the Middle East conflict, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
Here are a few details:
• Gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms likely expanded an annualised 2.0 per cent in the second quarter, according to the median forecast of 15 economists, after a 1.8 per cent expansion in January-March.
• The April-June growth rate was estimated at 0.5 per cent against the previous three months.
• Economic growth will be among factors considered by the Bank of Japan in deciding whether to raise interest rates as soon as September.
• Analysts said private consumption and capital investment remained firm, helped by government measures to ease cost-of-living pressures and progress in securing alternative energy supplies, even as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran pushed up raw material prices and disrupted supply chains.
• Junpei Fujita, a senior analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting, said the contribution from external demand is expected to have been significantly positive, reflecting a temporary upward swing in service exports and a decline in imports, mainly mineral fuels.
• "Overall, the figures are likely to confirm that the economy continued to recover gradually. However, the prolonged confrontation between the United States and Iran remains a source of concern going forward," Fujita said.
• Private consumption, which accounts for more than half of Japan's GDP, is expected to have grown 0.5 per cent. Capital expenditure was seen growing 0.4 per cent, bouncing back from the previous quarter's 0.7 per cent contraction.
• Net external demand, or exports minus imports, probably added 0.3 per centage points to GDP growth, after its contribution increased 0.3 per centage points in the previous quarter.
• The government will release preliminary April-June GDP data on August 17 at 8:50 a.m. (2350 GMT on August 16).
