Safe-haven dollar gains amid tense Russia-Ukraine talks; Aussie flat after rate cut

NEW YORK/GDANSK :The U.S. dollar advanced against major currencies on Tuesday, with losses led by the euro, garnering safe-haven bids amid tariff concerns and peace negotiations on the Russia-Ukraine conflict that are fraught with tension and miscommunication.

The Australian dollar, meanwhile, initially held near two-month highs after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates but cautioned on further easing. But the swell of broad dollar buying amid global geopolitical stress has temporarily eroded support for the Australian currency.

Traders were keeping an eye on the Riyadh talks involving U.S. and Russian officials on Tuesday aimed at ending the Ukraine war. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said no peace deal could be made behind his country's back. He postponed his visit to Saudi Arabia planned for Wednesday until March 10.

"Last week, there was a lot of optimism about the prospect that the U.S. would reveal some...contours around a peace deal in Russia and Ukraine," said Thierry Wizman, global rates and FX strategist, at Macquarie in New York. "That hasn't happened. And it has been mostly the euro which has taken the beating."

In midmorning trading, the euro fell 0.3 per cent to $1.0453, retreating for a second straight session. Last week, the euro rose to a two-week high on hopes of a peace deal.

Russia has hardened its demands for a peace deal, demanding that NATO go further by disavowing a promise it made at a summit in Bucharest in 2008 that Ukraine would join at a future, unspecified date.

U.S. President Donald Trump, meanwhile has threatened new tariffs on the European Union due to trade surpluses it had with the United States, in a widening offensive that economists say could trigger a global economic slowdown.

Against the yen, the dollar edged 0.1 per cent higher to 151.665. It pared gains after data showed U.S. homebuilder sentiment tumbled to a five-month low in February on worries that tariffs on imports would combine with higher mortgage rates to further drive up housing costs.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index plunged five points to 42 this month, the lowest reading since September.

The yen has been on the back foot after its recent gains as strong growth data bolstered odds of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates again this year, with July seen as a live meeting.

Japan's solid October-December GDP data on Monday, coupled with recent inflation numbers, have helped lift the yen. It is up 3.5 per cent against the dollar so far in 2025.

Sterling eased 0.1 per cent to $1.2615, hurt by a strong dollar despite data showing accelerating British wage growth.

Investors will also be focused on Wednesday's release of minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting in January that may show how policymakers have accounted for the risk of a broader tariff war resulting from President Donald Trump's trade policies.

Data last week showed U.S. consumer prices increased at the fastest pace in nearly 18 months in January, reinforcing the Fed's message that it was in no rush to resume cutting rates amid growing economic worries.

U.S. rate futures have priced in about 39 basis points (bps) of easing in 2025, compared with 41 bps late Friday, according to LSEG estimates, using the January 2026 futures contract. Futures also implied that the Fed will likely resume cutting rates again either at the September or October policy meeting.

The dollar index, which measures its performance against six other major currencies, was 0.2 per cent higher at 106.92, but still not far from the two-month low of 106.56 it touched on Friday. 

In Australia, the RBA cut its cash rate by 25 bps to 4.10 per cent on Tuesday in its first easing since the 2020 pandemic and said it was cautious about prospects of further policy easing.

That left the Australian dollar flat at US$0.6354 after an initial burst of choppiness following the decision. The Aussie touched a two-month high of US$0.6374 on Monday and was up 2.4 per cent in February.

Swaps imply just a 20 per cent probability for a follow-up cut in April, although a move in May is still almost fully priced in.

Currency              

bid

prices at

18

February

03:46

p.m. GMT

Descripti RIC Last U.S. Pct YTD Pct High Low

on Close Change Bid Bid

Previous

Session

Dollar 106.88 106.72 0.17 per cent -1.48 per cent 107.07 106.

index 71

Euro/Doll 1.0459 1.0484 -0.23 per cent 1.03 per cent $1.0487 $1.0

ar 442

Dollar/Ye 151.53 151.445 0.14 per cent -3.62 per cent 152.205 151.

n 265

Euro/Yen 158.49​ 158.82 -0.21 per cent -2.9 per cent 159.19 158.

38

Dollar/Sw 0.9014 0.9008 0.09 per cent -0.65 per cent 0.9035 0.89

iss 97

Sterling/ 1.2615 1.2626 -0.06 per cent 0.9 per cent $1.2627 $1.2

Dollar 583​

Dollar/Ca 1.4187 1.4182 0.05 per cent -1.33 per cent 1.4213 1.41

nadian 8

Aussie/Do 0.6354 0.6357 -0.02 per cent 2.71 per cent $0.6367 $0.6

llar 333

Euro/Swis 0.9426 0.9442 -0.17 per cent 0.35 per cent 0.9446 0.94

s 16

Euro/Ster 0.829 0.8303 -0.16 per cent 0.21 per cent 0.8309 0.82

ling 85

NZ 0.5704 0.5738 -0.57 per cent 1.96 per cent $0.5736 0.56

Dollar/Do 95

llar

Dollar/No 11.1449​ 11.1012 0.39 per cent -1.94 per cent 11.1628 11.1

rway 011

Euro/Norw 11.6529 11.639 0.12 per cent -0.99 per cent 11.666 11.6

ay 288

Dollar/Sw 10.7069 10.6949 0.11 per cent -2.82 per cent 10.734 10.6

eden 916

Euro/Swed 11.199 11.2127 -0.12 per cent -2.34 per cent 11.2205 11.1

en 986