Steep bill for AI buildout punishes Meta, other tech favorites
NEW YORK, Oct 22 : The tab for the next round of the AI buildout came due on Thursday.
Investors sold shares of Meta Platforms and a wealth of companies central to the AI trade, a day after Meta — one of the hyperscalers spending billions to build data centers and other infrastructure supporting the AI boom — said it would issue a new class of shares that will help it raise funds.
Meta fell 7 per cent, its largest drop since July. SpaceX declined 9 per cent and semiconductor company Nvidia — a bellwether of the AI trade — dropped 4 per cent. The Nasdaq Composite lost 2.6 per cent, its largest decline since June 5.
Sentiment was also hurt by a 12 per cent plunge in shares of semiconductor company Lam Research following its results. The Philadelphia Semiconductor index lost 6.7 per cent.
The pullback is the latest test for the AI trade as investors focus on the rising costs of long-term projects where the payoff remains uncertain.
Tech firms have borrowed huge sums over the past year for AI spending, but Wall Street now expects that the rise in borrowing costs will motivate tech companies like Meta to sell billions of dollars in stock to fund the next round of building.
That dilution could put pressure on share prices, and is a potentially unwelcome development when major US stock indexes remain near all-time highs despite a punishing month of volatile trading.
RETURN ON INVESTMENT CONCERNS
Selling started with "the big question about the (return on investment) on all the spending," said Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak. "It's just becoming more and more evident to people that it's going to take a lot longer."
Thomas Hayes, chairman at Great Hill Capital LLC in New York, agreed that ROI concerns are central while also citing remarks by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang about a financing bottleneck for smaller AI companies as contributing to the selling.
Meta said on Wednesday it would use new Class C shares, which hold no voting power, to fund AI spending and other priorities. Meta also raised the low end of its annual spending forecast to $135 billion from $130 billion, with the high end unchanged at $145 billion.
That level of spending will require lots of investor participation in coming stock sales. Meta reported negative free cash flow of $2.12 billion in the third quarter, compared with positive free cash flow of $10.63 billion a year earlier. It was the first cash burn at Meta in more than a decade.
“More spending, negative free cash flow, not enough revenue being generated from the spend (is) concerning investors that this is just sort of a bit of a money pit,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut.
The action highlights concern over how AI investment will be paid for. Credit default swaps, which track perceived default risk for the debt of the biggest AI players, have largely risen over the past year, with Meta’s hitting a record on Thursday.
INVESTOR ANXIETY SHOWS
Fresh signs of market anxiety over AI spending snowballed into a broad market selloff Thursday, with some saying an AI pullback could hit US growth. Investors sought the safety of Treasury bonds, sending those prices higher.
"This is your classic rotation day,” said Joe Saluzzi, partner, co-founder and co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey. “You can see the money going into Treasuries, so it's a classic safety move ... They are rotating out of techs, out of the AIs, and into the more safety trades, whether it's bonds or some of those big Dow Jones stocks.”
Thursday’s selloff added to the pressure on the neocloud companies at the heart of the AI buildout, with Nebius off 7 per cent after announcing a new $3.5 billion credit line from Citigroup and CoreWeave, whose unsecured bond yields soared to 15 per cent in last week’s AI selloff, down 10 per cent.
Bank of America analyst Tal Liani said in a report on Thursday he is maintaining a buy rating and a price target of $140 on CoreWeave stock heading into next month’s earnings report, though he said he believes the firm will need to raise $20 billion to fund commitments to customers — the sort of prospect that is generating anxiety among tech investors.
"Nobody is worried about Meta or Amazon or Google getting the financing they need," Maley said. "But if it gets prohibitive for smaller companies, then you don't have to have an implosion of things to make people nervous."
