Commentary: Lawrence Wong as Prime Minister and Finance Minister – it could give him an advantage

SINGAPORE: In what can be described as a low-key Cabinet changes on Monday (May 13), Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong confirmed he will remain Finance Minister after he takes over as Prime Minister on Wednesday.

Mr Wong cited continuity, stability and the need to avoid disruptions as reasons for not making major changes at the minister level. But it raises the question of double-hatting, when the job of Prime Minister comes with considerable pressures and challenges.

To begin with, there is precedence set by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. Similar to Mr Wong’s political trajectory, Mr Lee served both as Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister before becoming Prime Minister in 2004, continuing in the finance role for another three years till 2007.

In the same vein, Mr Wong might stay on as Finance Minister either until the next Cabinet reshuffle after the general election, or around the midpoint of his first term as Prime Minister. It is unlikely to be protracted as double-hatting may then be counterproductive due to domestic political optics.

With all other ministers holding on to their portfolios across the leadership transition from Mr Lee’s government to Mr Wong’s, it also testifies to the consistency in Mr Wong’s decision-making.

POLITICAL ADVANTAGE IN AN ELECTION YEAR?

Double-hatting would give Mr Wong the opportunity to deliver his first Budget speech as Prime Minister (his fourth as Finance Minister), in February 2025. Given the next General Election (GE) must be held by November 2025, it will no doubt be viewed as the “election budget” (assuming the GE is not called before then).

Fronting the Budget ahead of an election would reinforce the notion that the buck stops with Mr Wong, that he is ready to be held accountable by the people. It would make the election about Mr Wong’s mandate – his political leadership and his government’s policies. 

In fact, Mr Lee delivered two Budget speeches as Prime Minister, while also Finance Minister, in February 2005 and 2006, before the GE was held in May 2006. His ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) garnered 66.6 per cent of the popular vote, the second highest during his term.

Mr Wong would be looking to garner a similarly large share of the popular vote for a strong mandate in his first term as Prime Minister.    

THE ALL-IMPORTANT FINANCE PORTFOLIO

The finance portfolio will be pivotal from both the economic and social angle, as Singapore navigates the many global and domestic challenges.

Holding the government’s purse strings allows Mr Wong to keep flexing his muscle through the financial policies of the country, as well as the key policies of other ministerial portfolios.

Navigating the Singapore economic vessel amid significant headwinds – due to geopolitical contestations, technological disruptions and non-traditional threats to security such as climate change and global pandemics – will require sound and robust financial policies. Having an undisruptive and efficacious finance ministry is therefore vital and necessary, including keeping the same Finance Minister, at least during the short to middle term of a generational leadership change.

There will also be useful tailwinds that could further propel Singapore’s economic growth, new sectors of growth to be explored and invested in to ensure that Singapore stays ahead of the economic curve. Advances in digital technology, including in artificial intelligence, will be prioritised holistically, as illustrated by the Ministry of Communications and Information being renamed to Ministry of Digital Development and Information.

The finance portfolio provides the means to strengthen the social compact and will allow Mr Wong to see through the policies related to the Forward Singapore exercise he spearheaded. The socioeconomic nexus will be crucial in developing political trust towards the government, all the more so in the run-up to an election.

CHOICE OF DEPUTIES MATTERS

Given the demands of his roles, Mr Wong’s choice of deputies therefore mattered.

In retaining Mr Heng Swee Keat and promoting Minister for Trade and Industry Gan Kim Yong as Deputy Prime Ministers, Mr Wong prioritises wisdom and experience to minimise disruption and distraction amid the transition.

It also gives Mr Wong more time to decide who he wants as deputies from the fourth generation (4G) leadership team.

To support the workload in the finance portfolio, Mr Wong also has two able deputies, Second Ministers Ms Indranee Rajah and Mr Chee Hong Tat, in addition to the support provided by the efficient and professionalised civil service, which could certainly help alleviate the challenging pressures that come from double-hatting.

All eyes are now on when the GE might be called, after which more significant changes to the Cabinet will be expected.

Mr Wong could well also decide to deliver his first National Day Rally in August before the election, to demonstrate his strong political leadership and mobilise middle ground support.

Mr Wong will be seeking to start his term as Prime Minister on a high note and is showing his trust in his collective team to get him off to a great start.

Dr Mustafa Izzuddin is a Senior International Affairs Analyst with Solaris Strategies Singapore.

Editor's note: This commentary has been updated to correct a reference to Lee Hsien Loong delivering his first Budget speech as Prime Minister and Finance Minister in 2006. He delivered two Budget speeches in that capacity, the first of which was in 2005. We apologise for the error.