Analysis: Population decline is no issue for China's Guangdong. It's fertile ground for other provinces to learn

Ms Julia Chen would very much like to have twins.

While the 28-year-old in Guangzhou, China has yet to find Mr Right, she is set on having children - and hopefully a pigeon pair as well, similar to herself.

Money is tight for the cosmetic retail worker who earns around 6,000 yuan (US$826) a month, around half the city’s 11,300 yuan monthly average. Still, she’s not letting that put her off from motherhood.  

“People who are less affluent have their own ways of raising children. Instead of providing material support, you can offer them knowledge and strengthen their character, which I think is more important,” Ms Chen told CNA.

She also has a strong support network. “We have very strong family values, my family meet during festive periods and every now and then,” said Ms Chen, adding that she visits her grandparents at least once every fortnight.

Ms Chen hopes to tie the knot before she turns 30. "I want to find my ideal partner in the next two years," she said, adding that only after that will she consider family planning.

Analysts say such deeply rooted family values in the wider southern province of Guangdong, coupled with the region’s economic prowess, have been key drivers for it leading the way in births.

For four consecutive years, the province has been the sole one to log more than a million new births annually. It has topped the national birth rate record for six years in a row, based on latest figures.

This comes a year after China relaxed its controversial one-child policy to allow two children per couple, which was further expanded to three children in 2021.

Guangdong logged 1.03 million births last year, topping the national charts and comfortably ahead of the 695,000 tally logged by second-ranked Henan. Shandong, Sichuan and Guizhou completed the top five list.

Guangdong’s birth rate last year came in at 8.12 per 1,000 people, topping national charts. This was a bright spark for China, which logged a record-low 6.39 births per 1,000 people in 2023, down from 6.77 a year before. 

As China grapples with a record-low birth rate and shrinking population of 1.4 billion that plunged by 2.08 million last year and is projected by United Nations experts to plunge by 109 million by 2050, observers say Guangdong is well-placed to arrest this trend.

“Guangdong is in the best position to counteract the national decline in births in the near future,” Dr Zhao Litao, a senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s East Asian Institute (EAI), told CNA, citing the influx of migration as a pivotal factor. 

At the same time, he warns that a “zero-sum game” has emerged, where one province’s gain from migration is to the detriment of another.

While China is working on measures to reverse or at least stem its shrinking population, authorities are also placing greater attention on the quality of its people, rather than the quantity.

But population decline still stands out as a major problem, and analysts have said there are no easy answers to a problem that is being confronted by countries not just in Asia, but all over the world.

A POPULAR DESTINATION FOR YOUNG MIGRANTS

Home to more than 120 million people, Guangdong is China’s most populous province, followed by Shandong and Henan. 

Its real-time population is around 150 million, according to official data released in February, which analysts say reflects the province’s significant population mobility, fuelled by the movement of migrants from other provinces.

According to the latest once-a-decade national census in 2020, there are about 44.5 million people aged 20-34 in Guangdong.

Analysts say the province’s economic clout is a major draw for young people from other parts of China. A manufacturing powerhouse, Guangdong’s gross domestic product surpassed 13.57 trillion yuan (US$1.86 trillion) last year, topping the national list for the 35th straight year.

“(As a result, the province) has been able to attract large numbers of young migrants from inland provinces who are of childbearing age,” said Dr Zhao.  

Mr Chen Huang, 46, a native of the provincial capital Guangzhou, echoes this perspective. The construction engineer told CNA that throughout the years, he has observed many young Chinese migrant workers earning their keep in the city.

“Guangdong's robust economic development provides ample job opportunities,” he noted. 

The father of two children aged 16 and 14, also highlighted the province’s well-structured healthcare system, which enhances security for couples planning to start a family.

In Guangdong, 22 hospitals rank in the top 100 nationally for tertiary public hospitals. Fifty of the province’s hospitals are rated A or above, leading the country in this category. 

Also serving in Guangdong’s favour is its geographical distance from the political centre in Beijing, which has fostered a stronger local identity and preserved strong family and clan systems where having children is encouraged, analysts note.

“The birth control policy has been less strictly enforced in Guangdong,” said Dr Zhao, referring to China's one-child policy, which was rolled out in 1980 and lasted for 35 years. Families were allowed to have up to two kids in 2016, with the cap being raised further to three in 2021.

“In the 1980s and 1990s, local cadres in Guangdong were more tolerant of births exceeding the quota while in many other places, forced abortion and forced sterilisation were more commonly used,” he added.

REPLICATING THE GUANGDONG MODEL?

Experts say Guangdong is best placed to check the national decline in births, although a pivotal factor is whether the province can continue attracting young migrants from other parts of China.

For now, the numbers back it up. According to the 2020 census, Guangdong logged a high of  29.6 million domestic migrants, equivalent to a quarter of its permanent residents. 

Most came from neighbouring Guangxi province, which saw its population decline by 200,000 in 2023 compared to the previous year.

“As China has embarked on long-term population decline, inter-provincial migration has become the most critical factor shaping a province’s demographic and economic future,” said EAI’s Dr Zhao.

He suggested that several other provinces like Fujian and Zhejiang are well placed to take a leaf out of Guangdong’s playbook, considering their similar circumstances. Both are situated along the coast as well and are in the top 10 provinces by GDP.

At the same time, Dr Zhao pointed out that Guangdong’s experience is less relevant for the majority of Chinese provinces, especially those that are losing people due to migration.

“A zero-sum game has emerged: a province’s gain in population from migration is another province’s loss,” he warned.

Case in point - China’s rust belt, comprising Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning. The three northeastern provinces lost more than 30 per cent of their population between 2010 and 2020, according to data from the 2020 census.

Dr Zhao explained that the three provinces had a high concentration of state-owned enterprises in the Mao Zedong era. As some of the most urbanised provinces during the centrally planned economy era, their fertility rate declined earlier and faster than most other Chinese provinces. 

“Having a larger state sector also meant a more forceful and effective implementation of the one-child policy before 2016,” he noted.

“Moreover, the three northeastern provinces have been struggling with the transition to the market economy. Out-migration of young people further decreases their fertility rate.”

QUALITY OVER QUANTITY

China has been pledging support measures to boost its population. Authorities have committed to enhancing maternity benefits, housing tax policies, educational resources, and supportive environments for childbearing and employment.

Last year, the central government doubled the individual income tax deduction for infant care to 2,000 yuan per month. Over 10 provinces have initiated childcare subsidies, and Beijing and Guangxi expanded medical insurance to cover more reproductive services.

Chinese scholars have highlighted Guangdong’s population performance, suggesting that a shift in focus is needed for other provinces to replicate its showing.

In a commentary on local news outlet The Paper published last month, Professor Dong Yuzheng, a research fellow at the Guangdong provincial government said that switching attention to building up talent rather than population size should be explored. He brought up several metrics - rate of education, well-being and competencies.

Prof Dong also suggested fostering inclusive development across all age groups and setting up more childbearing-friendly facilities.

The idea of improving population quality came about during a high-level meeting of the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in May last year. President Xi Jinping stressed at the gathering that population development is of vital importance to the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, and efforts must be made to improve overall population quality.

CONFRONTING A ROUGH REALITY

Even as China works to improve the productivity and calibre of its people, analysts say a shrinking population remains a clear and present problem. 

It adds to demographic issues the world’s second-largest economy is already tackling - from a dwindling labour force to an ageing society - making an already patchy post-pandemic economic recovery that much more challenging.

The head of population and family affairs at China’s National Health Commission Yang Wenzhuang has stressed the need to enhance comprehensive coordination this year.

He emphasised addressing pain points such as high childbirth and childcare expenses, and the difficulty for women to balance family and work to ease the burden on families.

But as the reality stands, many women feel the sacrifice of having children is not worth the payoff, stated a report by a prominent Chinese think tank.

The report by YuWa Population Research Institute in February stated that women on maternity leave may encounter "unfair treatment" at work, including being transferred to other teams, receiving pay cuts, or missing out on promotion opportunities.

It added that if companies bear the full cost of maternity leave without government support, they may avoid hiring women of childbearing age, a common practice in China.

Women often face questions about family planning during job interviews or are passed over for roles. Those who leave the workforce to raise children find it difficult to return, and women with children may see a 12-17 per cent wage reduction, according to multiple studies cited in the report.

It’s not all rosy as well for Guangdong, the province leading the charge in births and population. A recent survey by the Guangdong Institute of Population Development revealed that over 30 per cent of those born after 2000 do not want to have children.

Of these respondents, more than 70 per cent cited unaffordability as the primary reason.

To Mr Chen, the local from Guangzhou, the responsibility of family planning now lies with his two children.

While there are still years to go before they come of age, he has already decided that he will not pressure them to have kids - not because of the cost, but freedom of choice.

"If my kid doesn’t want kids, I’ll let them be.”