China’s life expectancy soars to 79, but demographic woes also on the climb

BEIJING: The good news is that people in China are living longer, with latest statistics showing that the average life expectancy reached 79 years old in 2024 - an increase of 0.4 years from 2023. 

The not-so-good news is that its ageing population, along with dwindling birth rates, is intensifying demographic challenges for the world’s second-largest economy and population, with knock-on ramifications for the rest of the world. 

This contrasting picture of boom and gloom was depicted on Sunday (Mar 9) at a press conference on the sidelines of the Two Sessions about “livelihood” issues such as the ticking demographic time bomb and youth unemployment that the country is trying to tackle.

PEOPLE LIVING LONGER

Lei Haichao, Minister of the National Health Commission, said China’s public health improvements are evident. 

Average life expectancy hit 79 years in 2024 - an increase of 0.4 years from 2023, and a rise of 1.7 years compared to 2019.

Hailing the marked improvement, Lei noted that in most countries and regions where life expectancy exceeds 75 years, the annual increase “typically ranges from only 0.1 to 0.2 years”.

Data compiled from 53 middle- and high-income countries shows China ranking fourth in terms of life expectancy, according to Lei.

He added that China ranks 10th among the G20 nations.

Lei highlighted that several regions - including Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Hainan - have even surpassed the 80-year milestone in life expectancy.

“This suggests that China still has considerable potential for further increases in life expectancy, and we remain optimistic about continued improvements,” said Lei.

Despite these encouraging figures, significant challenges persist. 

Lei warned of a growing public health concern: abnormal body weight, which includes being both overweight and underweight - a problem driven by improved living standards, higher caloric intake, and less physical activity. 

Adding that this trend elevates the risks of diabetes, high blood pressure, and heart disease, he emphasised it is “crucial” for China to address lifestyle-related risk factors.

Projections from the National Health Commission suggest that by 2030, as many as 65.3 per cent of the country’s population could be overweight or obese.

“Each individual must take responsibility for their own health,” he said.

Lei also stressed the need to enhance primary healthcare, a cornerstone of China’s “new era healthcare strategy”. 

He highlighted that China’s healthcare system is extensive, with over 600,000 primary healthcare institutions and more than 5 million frontline workers delivering preventive, medical, and rehabilitation services across towns, villages, and communities. 

Local governments have boosted medical access by expanding medical insurance to over 90 percent of village clinics, while the Ministry of Finance has poured nearly 900 million yuan (US$124.4m) into upgrading medical equipment in township hospitals across central and western China.

Looking ahead, priorities include strengthening primary healthcare services, enhancing infrastructure and capacity, and ensuring basic healthcare access. 

China plans to expand county-level healthcare alliances - with a target that 90 percent of counties meet the “tight-knit” standard by year’s end and full national coverage by 2027 - and integrate innovative measures like AI-assisted diagnostics. 

Additionally, per capita basic public health funding will be increased by 5 yuan, reaching 99 yuan, to further boost service quality.
 

DEMOGRAPHIC TIME BOMB 

The demographic pressures extend beyond public health. An ageing population, combined with falling birth rates, is expected to strain social security systems and the labour market, which could impact economic growth. 

For a third consecutive year in 2024, China’s total population fell. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, it dropped by 1.39 million in 2024, to 1.4083 billion, down from 1.4097 billion people in 2023.

The burden of supporting a growing elderly population will fall on a shrinking workforce of young people.

In response to these challenges, Civil Affairs Minister Lu Zhiyuan emphasised the urgent need for reform in elderly care, calling it a “major concern for society”.

He detailed plans to create a comprehensive, three-tier system that integrates urban and rural services. 

It extends from county-level management platforms to township-based regional centres and community service stations, forming a so-called “15-minute elderly care service circle”, which ensures convenient access to essential services for seniors.

The strategy also involves harnessing big data and artificial intelligence to develop innovative solutions tailored to the needs of an ageing society.

“Our approach is demand-driven, focusing on optimising the ‘home-based care as the foundation, community support as the backbone, and institutional care as professional support’ model,” Lu added.

He noted that community-based institutions will enhance at-home care through meal delivery, medical assistance, household cleaning, and emergency response services.

The ultimate goal of these reforms, Lu explained, is to guarantee basic services for all seniors so that they can “receive proper care”, “stay engaged in society”, and “enjoy a fulfilling life.” 

“By consistently pushing forward these initiatives, we aim to build a sustainable and comprehensive elderly care system in China.”