US regains edge over China as preferred partner in Southeast Asia: Survey
The survey findings, released by the ISEAS think tank, show a return for the US as ASEAN’s preferred partner after it fell behind rival China in 2024.
China and US flags are seen as part of a Reuters illustration. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
This audio is generated by an AI tool.
SINGAPORE: More than half of 2,023 respondents polled across 11 Southeast Asian countries would side with the United States over China “if the region were forced to align itself with one of the two strategic rivals”, according to findings published in an annual think tank survey.
The State of Southeast Asia 2025 report, based on polls conducted by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute (ISEAS) between Jan 3 and Feb 15 and released on Thursday (Apr 3), examined regional perceptions on strategic issues and the influence of major powers.
When asked to pick between the US and China, 52.3 per cent of respondents favoured the US while 47.7 per cent supported China.
The ISEAS report also added that more than half of respondents believed the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) should “enhance its resilience and unity to fend off pressures from the two global powers”.
“This narrow margin underscores ASEAN’s delicate balancing act between the two major powers as economic interdependence with China competes with security considerations and more comfortable historical ties to the US,” the report said.
The latest findings have put Washington ahead of Beijing again after being Southeast Asia’s preferred choice of strategic partner for four straight years.
Southeast Asia with its 680 million-strong population, is becoming increasingly crucial to both US and China's interests.
This year's ISEAS report surveyed 2,023 people across 10 ASEAN member states and for the first time, included inputs from respondents in Timor-Leste which hopes to become a full member of ASEAN in 2025.
Respondents included researchers, media representatives, non-government organisations (NGOs), regional government officials, private sector representatives and members of civil society.
US support was found to be the strongest among respondents in Vietnam and the Philippines - “likely driven by ongoing territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea, as well as growing security partnerships with Washington”, the report said.
South China Sea tensions topped the list of geopolitical concerns in the region, followed by criminal scam syndicates and concerns over new US leadership.
Support for China, driven by “deep economic ties, trade dependencies as well as growing discontent with US policies”, was found to be strongest among respondents from Indonesia - followed by those in Malaysia, Thailand, Brunei and Laos.
Confidence in Washington had further strengthened around the region, following the re-election of President Donald Trump, the ISEAS report said.
But it cited concerns from more than half of survey respondents over President Trump’s unpredictable character, saying it would “add uncertainty to US engagement with the region”.
“STRATEGIC ANXIETY” BEHIND SOUTHEAST ASIA’S PREFERRED PARTNER PICK?
“Strategic anxiety” over Beijing’s assertiveness could have led Southeast Asian thought leaders to pick the United States over China in a scenario where the region is forced to choose between the two superpowers, said an expert.
Activities such as the militarisation of disputed islands in the South China Sea “have escalated the tensions from bilateral tensions to regional insecurity”, added Yenny Wahid, director of Indonesia’s Wahid Foundation, which promotes tolerance and multicultural understanding.
She was speaking at an online panel discussion organised by ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute to launch its 2025 The State of Southeast Asia Survey.
“So ASEAN probably feels that the US is the only actor that is willing to push back, that has the military capability and political willingness to push back,” she said.
“It is that fear of abandonment - not necessarily a full trust in Washington, but that fear of being left out, is what's driving the US’ rising influence (in Southeast Asia).”
In last year’s survey, China was the region’s preferred partner over the US.
The bottom line, however, is that ASEAN does not want to be forced to pick sides, said fellow panellist Peter Varghese, chancellor of The University of Queensland in Australia.
“The larger interest of ASEAN is more in a stable balance than in aligning … with one or the other of the Indo Pacific superpowers.”
The speakers agreed the survey results might have turned out differently if conducted at a different time, noting more recent developments such as US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s visit to the Philippines, and fresh worldwide tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on Apr 3.
The US’ engagement of Southeast Asia is complicated and “we should be very careful not to stereotype or simplify how ASEAN states will respond to Donald Trump, or how a Trump administration will necessarily work with ASEAN,” said Michael Green, chief executive of the United States Studies Centre in Australia.
“(Respondents) who thought that the Trump administration would increase engagement are right, but it's largely going to be in defence and national security,” he said.
“Those who believe the Trump administration will retreat are probably right when it comes to trade agreements and some of those other issues. It’s complicated.”
Overall, the survey shows “no single great power is dominating Southeast Asia” and Green said it could be considered a success for ASEAN diplomacy.
ISEAS’ survey also makes clear what the US and China can do to improve relations with Southeast Asia, he added.
Beijing would need to “peacefully resolve these conflicts in the South China Sea” whereas Washington would need to “respect international law and institutions”.
Green, who previously served in the US National Security Council, added he is doubtful either global power would take such action this year.
Professor Liu Lin, from the Party School of the Communist Party of China’s Central Committee, said the survey shows respondents’ positive attitude towards China-ASEAN relations.
ASEAN is “hedging between China and the US”, she said. “China will not force ASEAN to choose sides. What we are doing is just to enhance cooperation with ASEAN so as to further develop our bilateral relations and contribute to the region and development.”
China has always wanted ASEAN to “play a bigger role in in dealing with (a) volatile geopolitical strategic environment, because ASEAN has its agency”, she said.
“ASEAN can exert its agency. It is also in the interest of China, with the solidification of the ASEAN-centred multilateral mechanisms.”
CHINA STILL SEEN AS MOST INFLUENTIAL
But despite Washington's narrow lead, China remains the most influential economic and political-strategic power in Southeast Asia - “outpacing the US by significant margins, albeit with some decline in its overall economic and political-strategic influence”.
“China remains the top choice among respondents across ASEAN, except for the Philippines, where the US continues to be seen as the most influential political and strategic power,” the ISEAS report said.
The country is also the most influential economic power, garnering 56.4 per cent of polls among respondents in Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore.
“China’s ranking highlights its deep economic ties with the region, particularly through trade and infrastructure investments under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI),” ISEAS said, adding that Beijing's "strategic influence remains firmly embedded in the region".
Despite positive perceptions, concerns continue to grow over Beijing's political and strategic influence in the region, with nearly seven in 10 ASEAN respondents said they remained wary.
Latest findings showed that sentiment from respondents in Laos, a country that once regarded China as the region’s most influential economic power, took a “significant hit” - dropping to 49 per cent from 77.5 per cent in 2024.
“Akin to previous years, a majority of ASEAN-10 respondents (61.9 per cent) are worried about China’s growing regional influence, down from 67.4 per cent in 2024,” the report said.
“This is most strongly felt by Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines. Meanwhile, Cambodia, Brunei, and Malaysia are the most welcoming of China’s economic influence.”
Respondents considered Japan and the EU important partners for the region. India also made notable strides in this year’s rankings - a rise could reflect its “increasing engagement with the region”.
But when it comes to upholding international law, the US is still seen as the leading actor in the region, with “particularly strong” sentiment coming from respondents in countries like Cambodia, Vietnam and the Philippines.
“Despite concerns over President Trump’s transactional approach and US withdrawal from international organisations, ASEAN-10 respondents continue to see the US as a key defender of global governance,” the report said.
Earlier this week, a South China Morning Post article reported that Chinese President Xi Jinping would visit Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia in mid-April - marking his first overseas trip of the year and his first to Southeast Asia since he last visited Vietnam back in 2023.
If confirmed, the trip will come at a time of increasing US-China rivalry and regional uncertainty.
“As competition between China and the US intensifies in Southeast Asia, the majority of ASEAN-10 respondents believe ASEAN should enhance its resilience and unity to fend off pressure from the two major powers,” ISEAS said.
It added that this sentiment was particularly strong among Thai respondents, as well as those from the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam. It “underscores a regional preference for … maintaining ASEAN’s strategic autonomy”, it said.
TRUST ISSUES?
Respondents this year still remain largely divided about their trust in China as a superpower, ISEAS said, noting that rival Japan was found to be the region’s most trusted major power, followed by the EU, the US, China and India.
“Across the board and without exception, levels of trust in Japan outstripped levels of distrust,” the ISEAS report said, adding that the country also ranked first in terms of soft power - with 33 per cent of respondents indicating it as the region’s top choice for tourism.
"The largest proportion of respondents continue to view Japan as a responsible stakeholder that respects and upholds international law, a perception widely shared in Singapore, Vietnam, Myanmar, and Brunei," it added.
Respondents in Vietnam and the Philippines, where maritime tensions remain unresolved, expressed especially high levels of distrust towards China over Beijing's "use of economic and military power to threaten national interest and sovereignty".
Beijing’s interference in domestic affairs, as well as its use of economic tools and tourism to punish foreign policy choices, were cited as concerns by respondents in Thailand and Myanmar, countries whose economies depend massively on Chinese trade and tourism.
However, there were countries that expressed trust in China - crediting its vast economic resources and Beijing’s political will “to provide global leadership”, the ISEAS report said.
“Others aligned with views that Beijing was a responsible stakeholder or felt their country’s values aligned with China’s.”
Trust in the US remained strong overall and had even increased, ISEAS said - rising to 47.2 per cent from 42.4 per cent last year. US distrust also dropped despite scepticism around Trump and his “America First” policies.
A sharpest increase came from respondents in Laos, where confidence in Washington surged by over 30 percentage points.
FUTURE OF ASEAN
Looking ahead, more than half of ASEAN respondents expect relations with China to improve over the next three years, with top priorities including resolving territorial and maritime disputes peacefully and respecting national sovereignty.
Boosting bilateral trade also remains a key concern, as well as deepening mutual understanding through people-to-people relations, the ISEAS report added.
Similar to findings from 2024, respondents remain largely optimistic about the trajectory of relations with China over the next three years - with 50.3 per cent of respondents believing ties will improve.
Among them, around 15 per cent foresee significant progress, while 35.2 per cent anticipate moderate gains.
Optimism remains strongest in Laos (68.9 per cent) followed by Indonesia (67.8 per cent) and Malaysia (63.8 per cent), where China-backed infrastructure and economic projects are expanding.
Respondents were also generally positive about relations with the US even under Trump, with 46 per cent expecting ties to improve and optimism remaining particularly high in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia - suggesting growing confidence in their engagement with Washington.
Asia’s newest nation Timor-Leste’s confidence in Beijing stood out, with nearly 70 per cent of respondents expecting Chinese relations to improve - a sign of China’s growing role as a development partner in the region.
When asked about which “third parties” ASEAN might turn to amid the intensifying US-China rivalry, the European Union emerged as the top choice with 36.3 per cent, followed by Japan and India.
