HDB resale prices fall for third consecutive quarter: Flash estimate
HDB says it has not seen a significant increase in the prices or the number of resale flats purchased by private home owners and former private property owners since the 15-month wait-out period was removed.
View of HDB flats in Singapore. (File photo: CNA/Calvin Oh)
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SINGAPORE: Prices of Housing and Development Board (HDB) resale flats fell for the third consecutive quarter, declining 0.2 per cent from the previous quarter, according to flash estimates released on Thursday (Oct 1).
The HDB Resale Price Index stood at 202.4 in the third quarter, compared with 202.8 in the second quarter.
Resale prices fell 0.1 per cent in the first quarter and 0.3 per cent in the second quarter. They were unchanged in the fourth quarter of 2025, after rising 0.4 per cent in the third quarter.
The latest decline brings the estimated fall in HDB resale prices over the first nine months of 2026 to 0.6 per cent.
Mr Mohan Sandrasegeran, head of research and data analytics at SRI, said this would be the weakest performance for the first nine months of a year since 2018, when resale prices fell 0.8 per cent over the corresponding period.
"The continued moderation in resale prices could be attributed to the growing pipeline of flats reaching their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) as the year progresses, alongside an expansion in available resale inventory and the ramp-up in BTO (Build-to-Order) and Sale of Balance Flats supply in recent quarters," he said.
"The broader range of housing options available to prospective buyers may have helped to ease some of the competitive pressure in the resale market."
Despite the continued price decline, the volume of resale transactions remained "broadly stable", HDB said.
As of Sep 29, 7,528 resale transactions were recorded in the third quarter, 5.2 per cent higher than the 7,157 transactions over the same period last year.
HDB said it has not observed a significant increase in either the prices or the number of resale flats purchased by private home owners and former private property owners since the 15-month wait-out period for these buyers was removed on Jul 28.
The rule, introduced in September 2022 as a temporary measure to moderate housing demand, had required private property owners and former owners to wait 15 months before buying a non-subsidised HDB resale flat.
National Development Minister Chee Hong Tat announced on Jul 28 that market conditions have improved and the government had assessed that the 15-month wait-out period had met its purpose.
HDB said on Thursday that it would continue to monitor the resale market.
The removal of the wait-out period drove a rise in demand for five-room and larger resale flats, said Mr Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Asia.
"These two flat types saw the largest gain in sales volume in 3Q 2026," he noted.
Mr Sandrasegeran said the removal could generate some additional demand from private property owners looking to right-size, but he expects the impact on resale prices to remain manageable as more flats reach their MOP and become eligible for resale.
He added that the change should be viewed as a "targeted adjustment" rather than a broad relaxation of housing market measures.
Mr Lee expects the HDB resale market could bottom in the fourth quarter.
"Keen interest is expected for the 13,484 flats which will fulfil their five-year minimum occupation period in 2026. Some of the centrally located or five-room flats may be sold for at least a million dollars," he said.
BTO FLATS IN NOVEMBER
Mr Lee also said more buyers may apply for BTO flats in November, as the income ceiling for BTOs has been raised from S$14,000 per month to S$16,000 per month.
About 7,960 new flats will be launched across Bedok, Geylang, Sembawang, Tengah, Toa Payoh and Yishun.
Community care apartments will also be offered in Toa Payoh.
Mr Lee also noted changes to the allocation and distance priority for Primary 1 registration under Phase 2C in 2027, which could have an impact on demand in some places.
"Twelve primary schools in Bukit Timah, Newton and Marine Parade will have more spots for children who live more than 2km away. For these 12 schools, half of the spots will be for those staying within 2km and half for those beyond 2km," he said.
"This change may benefit HDB resale flats in Bedok, Bukit Batok, Bukit Merah, Bukit Timah, Central Area, Clementi, Geylang, Kallang/Whampoa, Marine Parade, Queenstown and Toa Payoh, which are close to the 12 schools."
HDB reminded prospective buyers that they must have a valid HDB Flat Eligibility letter when submitting their flat application.
HDB also cautioned that the macroeconomic outlook remains "highly uncertain", including the outlook for global and domestic interest rates. It advised households to exercise prudence when buying property and taking out mortgage loans.
"The government will continue to monitor the property market closely and adjust its policies as necessary to promote a stable and sustainable property market," HDB said.
PRIVATE PROPERTY PRICES RISE
Private home prices in Singapore rose 1.4 per cent in the third quarter of 2026, according to flash estimates released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) on Thursday.
The increase accelerated from the 0.5 per cent rise recorded in the second quarter.
Ms Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at Realion (OrangeTee & ETC) Group, said this marked the eighth consecutive quarter of private home price increases.
The quarterly increase was also the fastest in almost two years, since prices rose 2.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, she said.
Private home prices have risen an estimated 2.8 per cent over the first nine months of 2026.
Meanwhile, the volume of sale transactions fell by about 30 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, URA said.
Mr Sandrasegeran said the quarter had a comparatively limited fresh-launch pipeline, which meant the pricing, location and unit mix of individual projects had a greater influence on the distribution of new-home transactions.
He noted that buyers were still prepared to commit to higher purchase prices where they perceived sufficient value, although affordability remained an important consideration.
URA said prices of non-landed private homes rose 0.9 per cent in the third quarter, reversing a 0.1 per cent decline in the previous three months.
The increase was driven by homes in the Outside Central Region, where prices jumped 2.2 per cent after declining 0.1 per cent in the second quarter.
In the Rest of Central Region (RCR), prices rose 0.2 per cent, reversing a 1.2 per cent decline in the previous quarter.
Prices in the Core Central Region, however, edged down 0.1 per cent, after rising 1.8 per cent in the second quarter.
Landed property prices increased 2.8 per cent in the third quarter, following a 2.5 per cent rise in the previous quarter.
Looking ahead, analysts expect activity to pick up in the final three months of the year as more projects are launched.
Ms Sun pointed to Lucerne Grand, Thomson Reserve and The Serra as among the major upcoming developments, collectively bringing about 2,000 new private homes to the market.
She said Thomson Reserve, a 1,268-unit development in the RCR, could have a particularly significant effect on transaction volumes and the overall price index if sales are strong, given its size and expected pricing.
Mr Sandrasegeran similarly expects the launch pipeline to gather momentum in the fourth quarter, giving buyers a broader selection of homes across locations and price points.
SRI forecasts private residential prices to rise by about 3 to 3.5 per cent for the whole of 2026, broadly in line with the 3.3 per cent increase recorded in 2025.
