PAP will look to resonate with voters and rally them to a cause, amid shifting political landscape: Analysts

SINGAPORE: Amid a shifting political landscape, the onus is now on the People’s Action Party (PAP) to rally voters, resonate with them and make the case for its continued dominance, said analysts after Singapore on Sunday (Nov 24) neared completion of its leadership transition with its next general election just months away.

At the ruling party's biennial conference on Sunday, outgoing secretary-general Lee Hsien Loong said he would propose that its newly elected decision-making body elect deputy secretary-general Lawrence Wong as the next PAP chief.

In a speech, Mr Wong, who is also prime minister and finance minister, then said the PAP could no longer afford to be in the background and must instead come out in front to explain its policies and engage Singaporeans.

Dr Mustafa Izzudin, a senior international affairs analyst with Solaris Strategies Singapore, said this signalled that the party has realised that being politically “opaque” is a thing of the past and may not resonate with the newer generation of voters.

He said it was unlikely the PAP undergo a “total facelift or complete overhaul”.

The party’s structure will remain intact but where change may occur is in its communication strategy has evolved, as a result of wanting to more effectively engage a changing electorate in a social media age, Dr Mustafa added.

Coming out in front also means the PAP must contest elections - due to be held by the end of next year - not just as the incumbent government but also as a political party, said Associate Professor Eugene Tan from the Singapore Management University.

“The former means more about its policies and outcomes, but the latter is more about rallying people to a cause; a set of ideals and values,” he added.

Assoc Prof Tan said elections were likely to take place about six months away, after Budget 2025 and around May. “The party will step up its campaigning under the new leadership of Mr Wong,” he said.

"He will also have to show that one-party dominance is still relevant in today’s context of the desire for more political diversity and competition." 

For Assistant Professor Elvin Ong with the National University of Singapore’s department of political science and global studies, Mr Wong’s words suggest the PAP will be “on the front foot” in persuading Singaporeans of its existing and new policies.

The party may also proactively respond to criticisms of its policies by the opposition, and ask more members to engage with ordinary citizens more proactively, to explain and convince them of the party’s vision and proposed policies, he added. 

CEC APPOINTMENTS: WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR

The PAP also voted for its 38th central executive committee (CEC) on Sunday, with Transport Minister Chee Hong Tat joining the ranks for the first time after being co-opted. 

National University of Singapore political scientist Bilveer Singh said the omission of senior ministers from the ballot altogether – such as Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen and Senior Minister and Coordinating Minister for National Security Teo Chee Hean – suggested they may step down from their Cabinet positions some time in the next term of government.

“You can reshuffle the Cabinet anytime, but the CEC is here to stay for two years,” he explained, adding that it might even indicate their omission from the next general election.

Specific appointments within the CEC - such as secretary-general, chairman and organising secretaries - will not be known for another week or two. In 2022, this took 20 days.

Internal party dynamics, particularly among the core 4G or fourth-generation leaders, will be closely watched through the positions that immediately follow Mr Wong’s, said Assoc Prof Tan, who noted that Mr Chee, who took up his portfolio in January, was “effectively bilingual and so that helps the party connect with the Chinese-speaking ground”.

The fate of the deputy-secretary general post, created back in 2022 just for Mr Wong, will also be of interest.

If the PAP retains the role, whoever’s elected by fellow CEC members to that position will be seen as the presumptive deputy prime minister after the general election, said Assoc Prof Tan.

If abolished, who Mr Wong appoints as his two assistant secretary-generals could signal who’s in his inner circle as well as who he’s closest to within the leadership, said the experts CNA spoke to.

The incumbent assistant secretary-generals are Education Minister Chan Chun Sing and National Development Minister Desmond Lee.

Asst Prof Ong also identified the organising secretary positions as key, as they will be primarily responsible for organising the grassroots for the coming elections. Currently, the posts are held by Minister for Sustainability and the Environment Grace Fu and Minister for Culture, Community and Youth Edwin Tong.

Another thing to watch is whether Mr Heng Swee Keat remains as chairman of the party. And the man he took over the post from, Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong, who has not been on the ballot at the last two CEC votes, could still be co-opted into the weeks to come.

“If he makes a return to the CEC, it could point to Mr Wong’s attempt to strengthen his position and broaden his base of support within the party,” said Assoc Prof Tan.

Assoc Prof Singh stressed that Mr Wong needs to organise his team politically.

“The opposition terrain has totally changed, and voters from the young to the old are extremely critical. CEC members cannot be seen as getting to where they are just due to political patronage.”

COMPLETING THE 4G TRANSITION

With the completion of Singapore’s leadership transition at the PAP conference, “it’s time for a new generation of leaders to lead”, while retaining the support and wisdom of the 3G leaders, said Assoc Prof Tan.

Calling it “the end of a successful handover from the 3G”, Assoc Prof Singh noted that of those directly voted into the CEC on Sunday, 10 of 12 are from the 4G.

“According to the way the party is structured, the position of secretary-general is first among equals. To be both PM and secretary-general, that’s a very powerful position,” he said.

And the handover of that party role is not a given either, said Assoc Prof Singh, noting how founding Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew continued as PAP secretary-general for over a year after the premiership was passed to his successor Goh Chok Tong.

“This also means that now if anything goes wrong in Singapore, the buck ultimately stops with Lawrence Wong. The next general election results will be his own to bear, the accountability is solely his now,” said Assoc Prof Singh.

Mr Wong’s speech on Sunday may even indicate that he is already looking further ahead to the next transition.

By acknowledging the difficulty of recruiting new candidates, it shows “some urgency” to identify new 4G or even 5G leaders for the PAP, said Asst Prof Ong. 

Mr Wong also said “it is never easy to get good people to enter politics”, and that parachuting new candidates into ministerial roles was “very hard”. This, to Asst Prof Ong, could suggest there have been demands for ministerial positions in exchange for agreeing to be candidates.