What can Singapore expect from a second Trump presidency? Analysts weigh in
Observers noted that two factors most likely to affect Singapore will be trade and regional security.
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump smiles at an election night watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida, Nov 6, 2024. (Photo: AP/Evan Vucci)
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SINGAPORE: As Donald Trump prepares to take office for a second time, lessons from his first term offer hints on what to expect and how best to work with the famously unpredictable United States president-elect, said analysts.
When the 78-year-old is inaugurated in January, the rest of the world – including Singapore – will be better placed to approach the incoming administration as “we have been here before”, said Dr Adrian Ang, a US Programme coordinator at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS).
Mr Kevin Chen, an associate research fellow with the same programme, noted that Mr Trump is a “very transactional leader”.
This means partnerships with the US could become more expensive – not just when it comes to trade, but also cooperation in other areas such as defence.
“I expect that (Singapore’s) ties, particularly security ties, are going to be maintained with Trump,” he told CNA938.
“But I'm concerned about what he might ask for in return for continuing to engage with us – he might ask us to pay up.”
Mr Trump has been vocal about telling allies to contribute more to defence costs, including South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Mr Chen added that from his observations of Mr Trump’s first presidential stint between 2017 and 2021, Mr Trump prefers a personal approach to foreign policy.
“Looking back at … our engagement with him, Singapore’s leaders need to take a very personal approach towards ties with Trump,” he said.
“They’ve got to meet up more often... in person. Not just any leader, probably the head of government ... will have to make those trips because anyone (else) might not be considered important enough.”
With Mr Trump’s tendency to go off script, Dr Ang said: “We have to be able to discern the signal from the noise, and pay more attention to what he does, rather than what he says.”
LESSONS FROM TRUMP 1.0
After taking office in 2017, Mr Trump pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a proposed trade agreement between 12 Pacific Rim economies that included Singapore.
The withdrawal, amid an “America First” policy, came as a “shock to the region”, said Dr Ang.
He noted that after initial uncertainty, nations signatory to the partnership continued under an evolved agreement, and several other trade treaties have since popped up around the region.
“Singapore has to work with other like-minded states that are committed to maintaining the multilateral trading order… and there are many in the region,” Dr Ang told CNA’s Singapore Tonight programme.
Associate Professor Chong Ja Ian from the National University of Singapore's political science department said that the world has become more protectionist in the past decade, and the incoming Trump administration could accelerate the trend.
“While there's still hope for openness, which is what Singapore thrives on, we have to be prepared for an environment that is perhaps less welcoming than before,” he added.
Still, analysts said they expect fewer disruptions this time as outgoing US President Joe Biden prepares to hand the baton to Mr Trump.
Dr Ang pointed out that Mr Biden continued with many of the previous Trump administration’s policies, notably the free and open Indo Pacific strategy.
“So, I expect Trump administration 2.0 to have a great deal of continuity as well,” he added.
IMPACT OF US-CHINA RIVALRY
Mr Trump is expected to double down on trade regulations on key technologies, especially on Beijing’s access to semiconductors.
The move has benefited Southeast Asian countries, including Singapore and neighbouring Malaysia, as businesses diversify their supply chain and manufacturing activities beyond China.
However, Dr Ang cautioned wariness as Mr Trump’s hawkish stance on China could mean that countries and companies with large Chinese investments could come under similar treatment and face trade restrictions as well.
“It promises benefits for the region, but there's also downside as the US prepares to scrutinise some of these supply chains,” he said.
Mr Chen said: “Trump’s threat of imposing universal tariffs as well as tariffs on imports from China (will) create shockwaves in the region. But there’s also a chance he might use it as a bargaining chip and try to force countries to the negotiating table.”
REGIONAL SECURITY AND DEFENCE
Analysts said geopolitical tensions in the region, particularly in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, are expected to heighten.
Mr Chen said he expects Mr Trump’s national security jobs to be staffed with loyalists likely to be hawkish on China.
“(This) would raise tensions in the region, hopefully not to the level of a conflict, but we've got to be prepared,” he added.
He noted that Singapore’s relationship with the US is based on the strategic rationale that America guarantees stability for the greater region.
“It's better to have them (the US) involved in the region, rather than outside of it. That is still the foundation of our relationship,” he said.
“However, we might need to worry about broader issues, such as how Washington under the second Trump administration is going to conceive its ties to Singapore, especially (amid the) US-China competition... our leaders will have to approach this very, very carefully.”
Assoc Prof Chong said navigating a delicate balance could become increasingly difficult as competition between the US and China intensifies – not just for Singapore, but for others in the region.
“We have not reached a point in any of the possible flashpoints where … Southeast Asian states have to make a choice. But this doesn't mean that they shouldn't plan ahead for future contingencies,” he added.
THE 2018 TRUMP-KIM SUMMIT
Singapore last played host to Mr Trump during his first term as US president in a landmark 2018 summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
“The summit was an opportunity that allowed Singapore to put itself on the world map as a platform… in facilitating difficult conversations,” said Prof Chong.
Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong on Wednesday (Nov 6) congratulated Mr Trump on winning the election, and invited the soon-to-be 47th US president to visit the city-state again.
