Is the Gaza ceasefire truly over, or is there still potential for it to be revived?

The prospects for peace in Gaza remain bleak, with the resumption of hostilities this week shattering a fragile ceasefire that was put in place just two months ago, said observers. 

Massive Israeli strikes in Gaza on Tuesday (Mar 18) killed at least 400 people and left more than 500 injured, according to the Palestinian health authorities.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that the renewed offensive is "only the beginning", and that future talks with Hamas "will take place only under fire". 

His office said Tuesday's operation was ordered after the Palestinian militant group’s “repeated refusal” to release Israeli hostages.

TOUGHER SECOND PHASE OF CEASEFIRE

The ceasefire, which took effect on Jan 19, had halted fighting between Israel and Hamas. But the first phase of the agreement expired in early March after numerous exchanges of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.

Under the more difficult second phase, both sides are supposed to establish a permanent ceasefire, with remaining living hostages in Gaza exchanged for more Palestinian prisoners. Israeli forces would also need to make a complete withdrawal of troops.

But analysts are not optimistic that the truce can be restored. 

“You would need to see a new arrangement being made between Hamas and between Israel, and I just can't imagine that happening,” said former career US intelligence officer Jonathan Panikoff. 

“In the end, it seems to have been that the two sides just felt two months was enough, (and) there weren't going to be more hostages released,” he told CNA’s Asia First on Wednesday. 

“And so I think we're at a point where the ceasefire really has collapsed.”

Jean-Loup Samaan, senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s (NUS) Middle East Institute, said: “The problem is that we've seen over the last weeks that there were already a lot of uncertainties, disagreements between Hamas and Israel with regards to the future of the ceasefire.”

He told CNA’s Asia Tonight on Tuesday that the first phase, which was “mostly about stopping the clash and focusing on the release of the hostages”, was easier to comply with. 

The tougher second phase was when both sides had to consider the long-term political conditions, with a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the return of all hostages taken. 

ISRAEL’S POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS

Negotiations have since stalled over how to proceed, with the two sides unable to agree on the next steps. 

Israel has vowed to keep fighting until it achieves all of its war goals, including the return of all the hostages seized by Palestinian militants during the Oct 7, 2023 attack that ignited the war.

“Israel is talking about intensifying its military action, and it's hard to see how anything else is likely to occur,” said Simon Frankel Pratt, senior political science lecturer at the University of Melbourne. 

“It's hard to see how parties can return to the bargaining table at this point,” he told CNA’s Asia Now on Tuesday. 

Observers noted that Netanyahu never intended to honour stage two of the ceasefire. 

“I think the Israelis wanted to try and have a slightly different ceasefire that would have more hostages released,” said Panikoff, who is director of think tank Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative.

“Obviously that was going to reduce Hamas' single point of leverage, and so they were not going to agree to it. They wanted to move on to phase two of the original ceasefire agreement of having all Israeli troops out.”

Panikoff said this led to a “standstill”, which in turn led to the inevitable resumption of the war.

Analysts noted that Netanyahu is under a significant amount of domestic pressure to keep his political coalition together and maintain power. 

Pratt said: “Maybe right now, Netanyahu has an interest in distracting his domestic adversaries with a return to the war.”

A WAITING GAME FOR HAMAS

On what the renewed Israeli offensive means for the remaining hostages in Gaza, Pratt noted: “I don't see Hamas harming the hostages in this case because those hostages are its bargaining chip. 

He added: “Hamas might be able to pressure Israel by way of the international community if the strikes are killing many civilians. 

“But I don't know how much pressure the international community has successfully been able to levy on Israel in the past over the humanitarian costs of the war. So I don't think Hamas can do much other than wait.”

Hamas has accused Israel of jeopardising efforts by mediators to strike a permanent deal to end the fighting, but the group has made no threat of retaliation.

“I would expect the group to respond in the coming days as much as they can,” said the Atlantic Council’s Panikoff. 

“One of the reasons you probably haven't seen a more robust response already is the fact that the Israelis have taken out a significant amount of Hamas' rockets. It is harder in the resupply. And so I think Hamas is squeezed.” 

However, Panikoff said he does not see the militant group collapsing. 

“It's just not something that we've seen from the group before, and there's no reason to believe that they would be willing to give up now,” he added. 

“They think in some ways they have the upper hand, that this will absolutely benefit them in the long run.”

TRUMP VOWS TO BRING PEACE 

On Tuesday, Washington confirmed that Israel consulted US President Donald Trump's administration before carrying out the strikes.

NUS’ Samaan said this shows “clear coordination”, but it does not mean the Trump administration is fully behind Netanyahu’s government.

“At the end of the day, the Trump administration considers it has the upper hand with regards to the Gaza Strip. So clearly, they're onboard with this escalation,” he added.

Pratt agreed, noting that the US has “the ultimate leverage for returning parties to negotiation”. 

“I think that either military action continues for a while and the ceasefire totally collapses, or we see the Americans step in. 

“Then, the question would be: How long is the Trump administration willing to wait and let Israel return to pummeling Hamas and the people around it before it steps in and tries to pressure both parties to the table?” he added.

Pratt said he believes the Trump administration wants to take a stronger position against rebel groups in the Middle East. 

This comes as Washington vows to keep striking Houthi targets in Yemen, until the Iran-backed rebels end attacks on Red Sea shipping.

“It's hard to say what longer-term meaning this all has, because the Trump administration also changes its mind quite frequently, and often with little notice,” he added.