‘Gone on for too long’: Three years on, will Russia’s invasion of Ukraine end anytime soon?

The war between Russia and Ukraine entered its fourth year on Monday (Feb 24) amid a dramatic shift in the United States’ approach to the conflict.

Last week, American and Russian officials held high-level talks without inviting Ukrainian or European leaders. It was the first serious discussion of an end to the war since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.

While US President Donald Trump has been eyeing a swift end to the conflict, some observers expressed doubts that this will happen, given the shift in policy since he took office a month ago.

NOT MUCH TO BE POSITIVE ABOUT

“With the way that the Trump administration is handling this, I don’t think there’s much to be positive about,” said Sonia Mycak, a research fellow in Ukrainian studies at the Australian National University’s Centre for European Studies.

She noted that Ukraine has not accepted its exclusion from negotiations.

The White House also appears to be trying to re-establish economic and diplomatic relations with Russia, while statements issued by the Trump administration signal that all concessions are being given to Russia, she added.

“The signals seemed to imply that (Russian President Vladimir) Putin’s regime will be allowed to retain 20 per cent of Ukraine illegally occupied; that Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) or any other security arrangement.

"And also, importantly, that the Putin regime, the Russian military, will not be held accountable for the war crimes incurred in Ukraine,” Mycak told CNA’s Asia Now.

“Those (are) three aspects, three non-negotiable points that (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelenskyy has consistently said needed to be a part of a peace deal,” she added.

“FAR FROM DIPLOMATIC”

Marianne Hanson, associate professor of political science and international relations at the University of Queensland, concurred that Trump’s approach has been “far from diplomatic and far from ideal”.

Since last week’s meeting, Trump and Zelenskyy have been locked in a war of words. Trump branded the other man a “dictator” and falsely accused Ukraine of starting the war, while Zelenskyy in turn accused Trump of succumbing to Russian "disinformation".

“There are many, many questions about whether or not (Trump’s stance) is something that can stand up and provide some kind of lasting peace,” Hanson noted.

She also said that while it was a “great pity” Ukraine has not been part of negotiations, these talks needed to be held to put an end to the conflict.

“It’s a war that has gone on for too long … and the human tragedy of it has been absolutely dreadful,” she told CNA’s Asia Now.

“Ukrainians have been paying a terrible price for this.”

PUSH FOR NATO MEMBERSHIP

On Sunday, Zelenskyy said he was ready to quit as president if it meant Ukraine would be made a member of the NATO military alliance.

Kyiv has increasingly sought to join the 32-member alliance since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.

Mycak stressed that Zelenskyy’s offer to step down does not mean what Trump claimed was true, but simply means he is prepared to forgo power to “bring some concrete good” to his country.

Trump alleged last week that the Ukrainian leader refuses to have elections and “is very low in Ukrainian polls”. But while Zelenskyy’s five-year term expired last year, Ukrainian law does not require elections during wartime.

NATO membership is key for Ukraine’s long-term security, and would have protected the country from invasion, noted political science professor Steven Fish from the University of California, Berkeley.

He said it does not seem Kyiv will become a NATO member, however, given Trump has “less than no interest” in NATO.

Trump has demanded US$500 billion worth of rare earth minerals, which are vital for the production of high-end equipment, from Ukraine to make up for aid given under former president Joe Biden’s administration. Kyiv has baulked at the price tag and said it does not correspond with published US aid figures.

Fish said the US has no way to force Zelenskyy into a deal, and that Ukraine will continue fighting this war no matter what America does.

“What President Trump completely doesn't acknowledge, and people of his ilk don't acknowledge – in his administration and some of his Republican colleagues – is that the United States and Western Europe owe Ukraine a great deal of gratitude and enormous debt of gratitude. They have been actually holding Russian imperialism at bay,” Fish added.

“Trump, of course, doesn't see it that way. Trump sees everything in terms of transactions and in terms of his own economic interests.”

“VERY DANGEROUS PRECEDENT”

Mycak said that a ceasefire and “frozen conflict” would give Putin “exactly what he wants” – one-fifth of Ukraine as well as zero possibility for Ukraine to join NATO or other security arrangements.

“That would be a very, very dangerous precedent set for the rest of the world,” she added.

Fish told CNA’s Asia First that if the war does end quickly on Russia’s terms, Putin would think it was worth the number of lives lost.

Still, the professor flagged two issues to take note of.

“This war is going to go on. The Ukrainians are not simply going to accept the loss of their territories,” he said.

Putin has also demanded more than that – the demilitarisation of Ukraine, which Ukrainians will not accept either, noted Fish.

“The second thing to remember is that Putin is not interested in some lasting peace,” he said.

“If Putin gets his territories that he’s occupying, all he’s going to do is go home and gear up for the next war on Ukraine, or gear up for pressuring Ukraine even more.”

Fish pointed out that Putin has never accepted that Ukraine is a sovereign country and thinks Russia has the right to control its neighbours, including nations that were part of the Soviet Nation.

“So this so-called deal, whatever it ends up being, is not going to end the conflict in Ukraine. In fact, it could plant the seeds for a much greater conflict in the future,” he added.