How will Trump's growing rift with Zelenskyy affect peace efforts?

United States President Donald Trump’s growing rift with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy will not only complicate efforts to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but also upend international norms, said observers. 

The Russia-Ukraine war enters its fourth year next week.

On Thursday (Feb 20), Zelenskyy will meet US envoy Keith Kellogg. He said he hopes for "constructive" work with the US after Trump lashed out against him on social media, including labelling him a “dictator”. 

Earlier, Trump had written on his Truth Social platform that the Ukrainian leader refuses to have elections, “is very low in Ukrainian polls, and the only thing he was good at was playing (former US President Joe) Biden 'like a fiddle'”.

While Zelenskyy’s five-year term expired last year, Ukrainian law does not require elections during wartime.

Trump has also suggested that Ukraine was responsible for Russia's 2022 invasion.

In turn, Zelenskyy accused Trump of succumbing to Russian "disinformation". 

US-UKRAINE RELATIONS SOUR

Trump’s latest remarks are nothing more than his administration bending the knee to Moscow, said Malcolm Davis, senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute - a defence and strategic policy think tank.

This comes after top American and Russian officials had an initial meeting on ending the Ukraine war. Kyiv was not invited.

“There's no way that Ukraine is gonna get a fair and just peace out of this current process,” said Davis. 

“I think what you're seeing here is Trump trying to create a narrative that justifies him walking away, not only from Ukraine, but also from Europe as well, and basically abandoning Europe and Ukraine to the mercy of the Russians,” he told CNA’s Asia First. 

“Zelenskyy has every right to challenge Trump on this, because what's going to happen is that any peace deal that the US and Russia agree to at Ukraine's expense - excluding Europe from the table - will see the Russians make all sorts of demands in terms of additional territory that they want to control.”

The US had been the largest source of aid to Ukraine, including arms and financial support, but in a sudden policy shift since taking office, Trump has opened talks with Moscow.

“Ukraine now has to turn to Europe, and I think that Europe, in its own interests, has to stand up and stand on its own two feet and recognise that in a crisis, it may not be able to count on the United States as well,” said Davis. 

“From Ukraine's perspective, I think they need to start thinking about alternative supply of military assistance and economic assistance. They can't count on the Americans any longer.”

TRUMP’S FIXATION ON CHINA

Trump’s administration said on Tuesday that it agreed to hold more talks with Russia on ending the war in Ukraine, after the initial meeting in Saudi Arabia. 

“For Trump, it's Biden's war. It's not his war,” said Alexey Muraviev, associate professor of national security and strategic studies at Curtin University.  

“That's why he wants to shut it down, also probably knowing that it's not a winnable war.”

Trump is walking away from its commitments to Europe, including Ukraine, to focus on the China threat, said observers. 

“That's why he wants Ukraine and Zelenskyy to become Europe's problems. He looks at Europe as a liability from a security perspective, and he looks at Europe as an economic competitor to the United States,” Muraviev told CNA938. 

During the US-Russia talks, Moscow hardened its demands, notably insisting it would not tolerate the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) military alliance granting membership to Kyiv. 

On Tuesday, Trump expressed his confidence in a potential peace deal with Ukraine, saying that he believes he has "the power to end this war".

He added that he would probably meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin before the end of the month.

ZELENSKYY’S POLITICAL FUTURE

Meanwhile, Zelenskyy, whose popularity has eroded, is contemplating his personal political future, Muraviev highlighted. 

Zelenskyy was elected in 2019 for a five-year term, but has remained his country’s leader under martial law imposed following the Russian invasion.

“What Zelenskyy is actually trying to do right now is he wants security guarantees towards Ukraine. But more importantly, he wants security guarantees towards himself,” said Muraviev. 

“He wants to ensure that either he remains in power or he will not be kicked on the side of the road, if Trump - with Russia's pressures - insists on Ukraine holding presidential elections.” 

Various indicators, including by analysts in Ukraine, suggest that Zelenskyy would not have a chance of winning if elections are held. 

“I don't think that the Zelenskyy administration thought it through when they were managing their relationship with Washington,” said Muraviev.

“They were absolutely convinced that the Washington political spectrum, whether it's the Republican or the Democrats, would be on their side.”