Why did Biden lift a ban on Ukraine striking inside Russia with US long-range missiles?

United States President Joe Biden’s move to allow Ukraine to use long-range US missiles against targets inside Russia is partly aimed at complicating president-elect Donald Trump’s potential policies, an expert said on Monday (Nov 18).

Biden’s decision, which marks a major reversal of Washington’s policy in the Russia-Ukraine war, comes just two months before he hands over the baton to Trump on Jan 20.

Tuesday marks 1,000 days since Russia invaded its neighbour. It is now advancing into Ukraine at its fastest rate since 2022, despite taking heavy losses.

For months, Kyiv has demanded the lifting of restrictions on the powerful missiles – known as the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) – to help defend its forces in Russia’s Kursk region.

MAKE TRUMP’S MOVES ON UKRAINE DIFFICULT

The main incentive behind Biden’s change of heart and the timing of his decision is “basically to make the life of incoming president Donald Trump as difficult as possible”, said Alexander Korolev, senior lecturer in politics and international relations at the University of New South Wales.

The analyst said Biden and his Democratic Party were “confident they would win” the Nov 5 presidential election.

But Vice President Kamala Harris – who replaced Biden on the Democratic ticket in July – lost the White House race to Trump, who will now serve a second term in office.

“This decision does change the operational parameters of Donald Trump,” Korolev told CNA’s Asia First programme.

“Trump, during his election campaign and before he officially started campaigning, made very flashy statements about how he would end the war in Ukraine within a day or within a week – very promptly,” Korolev said.

“I think (Biden’s) decision makes it more difficult for Trump to make any decisive moves towards Ukraine without looking like he's actually a Russia supporter.”

Korolev added that while Trump could reverse Biden’s decision once in office, this will “not look nice” to America’s allies, especially in Europe.

Trump has repeatedly threatened to cut off aid to Ukraine. On the campaign trail, he criticised Ukraine President Vlodomyr Zelenskyy as “the greatest salesman of all time”, pointing to the billions in aid Washington has provided Kyiv. 

“MOSTLY POLITICAL AND SYMBOLIC DECISION”

Nevertheless, Korolev said he thinks the use of ATACMS, which can reach up to 300km, is “mostly a political and symbolic decision” and will not make a significant difference in the war's overall trajectory. 

“Those missiles won't be able to hit any significant political centres. (They will) mostly probably aim at the Kursk region and other territories occupied by Russia (that were) originally Ukrainian territories,” he added.

“I see it mostly as a political manoeuvring in the White House to do the right thing, so to speak.”

Since Trump's victory, senior Biden administration officials have repeatedly said they would use the remaining time to ensure Ukraine can fight effectively next year or negotiate peace with Russia from a "position of strength".

A RESPONSE TO DEPLOYMENT OF NORTH KOREAN SOLDIERS

Biden’s shift came in response to North Korean troops being deployed to help Moscow's war effort against its neighbour, according to US officials cited by the New York Times and the Washington Post.

Grant Newsham, senior research fellow at Japanese think tank Japan Forum for Strategic Studies, said that the situation has deteriorated to the point where the new Trump administration “has its work cut out”.

“(The) Trump administration is going to very much understand the risks facing not just the United States but the entire free world, and they are going to be far stricter, far tougher on North Korea, China and Russia,” he added.

Newsham, a former US diplomat and retired US Marine officer who served in the Indo-Pacific for decades, said North Korea’s involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is “something to be very concerned about”. 

Recently, the hermit kingdom launched a new intercontinental ballistic missile that it said can strike the US mainland.

Newsham noted that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who has called on military officials to complete war preparations, is acting like “someone who knows he has the backing of Russia and China”.

“You can see the assistance he has given the Russians from day one of the war in Ukraine. He’s done it without any real concern he's going to be punished by anybody,” Newsham told CNA’s Asia Now.

“He doesn't appear to fear sanctions, which are really meaningless at this point – the Chinese and the Russians are not at all enforcing them.”

WHAT IS THE RISK OF ESCALATION?

Washington has said it believes more than 10,000 North Korean soldiers have been sent to eastern Russia, with most of them moving to the Kursk region and beginning combat operations.

Previously, the US was reluctant to let Ukraine use US-supplied weapons to strike targets deep inside Russia for fear of escalating the conflict.

On Sunday, Zelenskyy said in an evening address that the missiles would “speak for themselves”.

Previously in September, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that the use of ATACMS inside Russia would mean the NATO – or North Atlantic Treaty Organization – military alliance is "at war" with his country.

The decision could lead to World War III and will receive a swift response, said Vladimir Dzhabarov, first deputy head of the Russian upper house's international affairs, according to the TASS news agency.

Kololev said he was “very doubtful” Russia would directly retaliate against the US and its NATO allies, but that “the dangers of escalation are real”.

“It might sort of justify Russia to take bolder moves against Ukraine,” he added.