Slew of overseas visits show Prabowo’s desire to take charge of foreign affairs as next president: Analysts

JAKARTA: In the lead-up to this week’s United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York, speculation was rife in Indonesia that the country’s delegation would be led by President-elect Prabowo Subianto.

After all, since winning the election in February, the current Indonesian defence minister has been a prolific international traveller, visiting 20 countries and engaging global leaders from all corners of the world. 

Analysts say that these high-profile visits underscore his desire to be actively involved in foreign affairs once he is sworn into office on Oct 20, even though it emerged this week that Mr Prabowo will not be attending the UNGA after all.  

Instead, Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi will represent Southeast Asia’s largest economy  in the Sep 28 morning session of the 79th UNGA's high-level general debate, which runs from Sep 24 to Sep 30.

This is not a surprise as incumbent president Joko Widodo has often entrusted foreign diplomacy issues to Mdm Retno.

Mr Widodo was perceived to prefer to focus on domestic affairs, though he fronted selective diplomatic initiatives, such as on Myanmar during Indonesia's chairmanship of the Asean regional grouping. 

Analysts told CNA that this would likely be different once Mr Prabowo takes over.

The 72-year-old wants Indonesia to be more active on the international stage, to be more respected by other countries and to show that it is independent from foreign interference, said Associate Professor Dinna Prapto Raharja, executive director of Jakarta-based think tank Synergy Policies, which focuses on political, social and economic sciences.

“Mr Prabowo wants to put forward his vision, and he is very firm in showing that he controls the (country’s) foreign policy,” she added. 

DIFFERENT PERSONALITIES

During Mr Widodo’s presidency, Indonesia was the rotating president of the Group of 20 (G20) in 2022 and the chairman of ASEAN in 2023. He was also the first Asian leader to visit Ukraine and Russia since the war broke out in Feb 2022. 

However, he has never attended the yearly UNGA.

Mr Widodo, who is popularly known as Jokowi, assigned then-vice president Jusuf Kalla to attend the UNGA in his first term, while Mdm Retno has been Indonesia’s representative for the past five years. 

His non-attendance at the UNGA has often been cited by analysts as a clear indicator that the president is not so interested in foreign affairs. 

“He has never given any statements about this (his non-attendance). But maybe he (Jokowi) feels more inclined to be at home ... to see how his programmes are working (domestically),” said Associate Professor Teuku Rezasyah from Bandung’s Padjadjaran University.

Since assuming office in 2014, Jokowi has spent most of his time on domestic travel. The archipelago is vast -  the distance from west to east is equal to that between London and Baghdad  - and he is often in two provinces daily. 

Prof Angel Damayanti from Jakarta’s Christian University of Indonesia (UKI) said that retired general Prabowo has a different personality and background from Jokowi, a local businessman who came from humble roots.

“Mr Prabowo is easygoing, likes to have many friends, and has lived abroad for quite a time,” said Prof Angel, who specialises in international security and relations.  

“As a military personnel, he was used to working with the military from other countries, so he is more confident (than Jokowi), and he has that capability (to work with others).” 

Mr Prabowo’s father, Mr Sumitro Djojohadikusumo, was an economist and politician but lived abroad for a while due to political reasons. 

As a result, his son went to school in Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom and is fluent in English and a few other foreign languages.

On social media platform X, Mr Prabowo claimed in 2013 that he also speaks German, Dutch, and French.

Assoc Prof Teuku Rezasyah from Bandung’s Padjadjaran University said Mr Prabowo is a confident leader.

“And he is knowledgeable about international issues,” he said.

FROM ASIA TO EUROPE

Mr Prabowo is the first president-elect to formally visit foreign countries before assuming office since he is also an incumbent defence minister who handles military cooperation with foreign governments. 

The country’s sixth president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Jokowi’s predecessor, was coordinating minister of politics and security affairs before becoming president. However, he resigned before running for office.

Prof Angel from UKI said that for the past six months, Mr Prabowo has visited countries with which Indonesia has cooperation agreements, in particular in defence and economy.

While most of Mr Prabowo’s official visits were focused on defence cooperation, some of them were not related to Indonesia’s security matters. 

And on his official visits abroad, given his status as the president-elect of the world's fourth most populous country, it is also natural that he would be treated differently and may also get access to top foreign leaders.  

For instance, he met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Jul 31, and said that his upcoming administration would maintain ties with "great friend" Russia, adding that he hoped for stronger cooperation on defence, energy and education.

Assoc Prof Dinna noted the countries visited by Mr Prabowo all have strategic defence and geopolitical positions. 

For example, Laos is the current chair of ASEAN, while Malaysia will lead the group next year. This could be why Mr Prabowo visited Malaysia and met Malaysia’s prime minister Anwar Ibrahim twice.

Agreeing, Mr Agung Surya from Bali’s Udayana University said Mr Prabowo’s travels should be viewed as his early attempts to gain international support from strategic countries. 

“The countries he has visited are countries he considers can be a strategic partner in the future, and the relationship must be given priority,” he said. 

Assoc Prof Teuku Rezasyah from Bandung’s Padjadjaran University said Mr Prabowo could be keen to start building relationships and trust with foreign dignitaries early on, as this is needed in bilateral and multilateral cooperation. 

NO US TRIP YET 

Although Mr Prabowo has travelled the globe in recent months, most recently to the Philippines on Sep 20, he has yet to visit the United States. 

Analysts say this is most likely because the superpower is about to hold a presidential election in November and is in the middle of a leadership transition.  

Prof Angel pointed out that it may not be so effective for Mr Prabowo to travel to the US and meet president Joe Biden as the latter is about to step down in a few months. 

Assoc Prof Dinna from Synergy Policies highlighted that although Mr Prabowo has yet to travel to the US since winning the election, he has gone to Japan, which is often regarded as the US’ most important ally amid the US-China rivalry. 

Mr Prabowo went to Japan on Apr 2 for a two-day visit after visiting China the day before. 

“I think this is all just about time. In the end, he will take the opportunity (to visit) because this month he has not been inaugurated, and he is also still waiting for the results of the (Indonesian) regional election,” she said, referring to Indonesia’s regional election on Nov 27.

“It seems Mr Prabowo’s party is also still trying to secure itself domestically, so he needs to consolidate with his members internally before giving a tough stance globally.” 

Apart from being a defence minister, Mr Prabowo is also chairman of political party Gerindra, the country’s third biggest party.

Assoc Prof Teuku Rezasyah from Bandung’s Padjadjaran University said Mr Prabowo could always visit the US after the new president is inaugurated at the end of January.

“His travels show domestically that he is the commander of the Indonesian diplomacy and defence," he said. 

“And to the world, Prabowo is showing he is ready to help the world face its global issues.”