As Indonesia swears in a new president, all eyes are on his team and how he will engage with the world
Who Mr Prabowo Subianto appoints as ministers, how he could engage with the world and whether Indonesia will have an opposition are three key issues to watch.
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JAKARTA: Indonesia is set to welcome a new president on Sunday (Oct 20) morning as Mr Joko “Jokowi” Widodo steps down after 10 years at the helm of Southeast Asia’s largest economy.
Former general Prabowo Subianto will be sworn in as the country’s new leader and former mayor Gibran Rakabuming Raka, its vice-president, in a formal ceremony in Jakarta.
Besides the pageantry, observers and the public will be looking out for Mr Prabowo's line-up of ministers and whether he will add Indonesia’s largest political party to his coalition, leaving the country with no opposition for the first time in decades.
The world will also be monitoring how the 73-year-old will steer Indonesia’s economic, defence and foreign policies at a time of geopolitical and trade tensions.
The ceremony is set to take place at 10am local time at the parliament complex in South Jakarta.
The newly appointed chief of the country’s Supreme Court, Mr Sunarto, will preside over the inauguration and is expected to raise a copy of the Quran Islamic holy book over the new president’s head while Mr Prabowo takes his oath of office.
After he is sworn in, Mr Prabowo is expected to deliver his first speech as president before members of parliament and other guests.
World leaders and dignitaries have been invited, according to Parliament Speaker Ahmad Muzani. “Almost all leaders of Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries will attend,” he told reporters on Tuesday (Oct 15), as quoted by news outlet Tempo.
Also invited are the country’s living former presidents, Madam Megawati Soekarnoputri and Mr Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, as well as former vice-presidents.
Mr Anies Baswedan and Mr Ganjar Pranowo – the two presidential candidates Mr Prabowo comfortably defeated in February’s election – are also invited, said Mr Muzani.
Outgoing president Mr Widodo will also be there. Later in the day, he and Mr Prabowo are scheduled to meet again for an official handover ceremony at the presidential palace.
At the palace, the new president is expected to announce his Cabinet, which has been a source of feverish speculation and debate in Indonesia in recent weeks.
Mr Prabowo has already garnered the support of 12 political parties and is wooing another to join his coalition: Mdm Megawati’s Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).
This leaves analysts worried the country could be without any real opposition to the government for the first time since the 1998 fall of Suharto, Indonesia’s second president who ruled the country with an iron fist for more than three decades.
Mr Prabowo was defence minister during Jokowi’s second five-year term in office from 2019.
After partnering Jokowi’s eldest son, Mr Gibran, in February’s presidential election, he was seen as a continuity candidate and greatly benefited from Jokowi’s high public approval rating of 77 per cent.
At 73, he is Indonesia’s oldest president to take office while Mr Gibran, 37, is the country’s youngest-ever vice-president.
Despite winning on the pledge of continuity, however, analysts say Mr Prabowo could adopt different approaches in his economic, defence and foreign policies.
MOTORCADES, MUSIC – AND HORSES?
From the parliament building, Mr Prabowo’s and Mr Gibran’s motorcade will pass through Jakarta’s main thoroughfares as they make their way to the presidential palace.
Mr Hotman Paris, a celebrity lawyer and member of Mr Prabowo’s campaign’s legal team, said last week that thousands of supporters will line two of Jakarta’s biggest streets, Jalan Sudirman and Jalan Thamrin, to greet the pair.
Quoting an anonymous source, Kompas newspaper reported that Mr Prabowo’s supporters had also prepared a so-called “festivity for the people”, setting up 10 music stages at various locations along the two streets.
Details of Mr Prabowo’s plan for the day are still under wraps. But Kompas reported the pair may step out of their vehicle and greet their supporters. If true, the move would be similar to what Mr Widodo did when he took office.
In 2014, Mr Widodo and then-vice president, Mr Jusuf Kalla, greeted supporters who were waiting at the Hotel Indonesia roundabout in downtown Jakarta before they were ferried in a horse-drawn carriage to the presidential palace around three kilometres away.
According to Kompas, some volunteers are wishing for something similar, but with Mr Prabowo and Mr Gibran riding horses from the National Monument, about a kilometre away from the palace.
WHO’S IN, WHO’S OUT OF PRABOWO’S NEW CABINET
Mr Prabowo is expected to announce his Cabinet later this afternoon.
The line-up of ministers will be closely watched, and their backgrounds and any party affiliations scrutinised.
Between Monday and Tuesday (Oct 14 and 15), more than 100 politicians and technocrats were summoned to Mr Prabowo’s home for discussions.
They included ministers who served in Jokowi’s administration such as Mr Erick Thohir, who was the minister for state-owned enterprises, and Dr Sri Mulyani Indrawati, who could be the first finance minister to serve under three different presidents.
Those with no previous experience in the bureaucracy included singer-turned-politician Giring Ganesha, badminton legend Taufik Hidayat and celebrity and entrepreneur Raffi Ahmad.
Professor Yusril Ihza Mahendra told reporters outside Mr Prabowo’s home on Monday (Oct 14) that he has been asked to be the country’s coordinating minister for law and human rights.
Prof Yusril said that although the Cabinet will be announced on Sunday, they will be sworn in the next day.
Local media reported that those touted to become ministers and deputy ministers were invited to spend Wednesday and Thursday at Mr Prabowo’s villa in the hilly outskirts of Jakarta. In total, 108 people were told to go for a briefing with Mr Prabowo.
If they turn out to be members of his Cabinet, Mr Prabowo could have the most number of ministers in Indonesia’s history.
In contrast, Mr Widodo had 34 ministers, 17 vice-ministers and 11 ministerial-level officials while Mr Yudhoyono had 34 ministers, 17 vice-ministers and four ministerial-level officials.
Notably, none of the figures invited to meet Mr Prabowo were from the PDI-P and National Democrats (Nasdem).
Nasdem politician Saan Mustopa said the party was offered positions but needed more time to discuss further with the new president. “We are still behind Mr Prabowo’s administration. We will fully support Mr Prabowo’s policies and programmes,” Mr Saan said on Oct 14, as quoted by Detik.
The PDI-P is the only party in parliament that has not aired its intention to join Mr Prabowo’s administration although one of its senior members, Ms Puan Maharani, said the party will still support his administration in one way or another.
Even if the PDI-P decides to stay away, Mr Prabowo could face no real opposition in parliament. Although the PDI-P, with 110 seats, has the most seats in the legislative branch of government, it is nothing compared to the new president’s coalition of parties, with 470 seats.
Of the 12 political parties that have backed him, only eight have seats in parliament, including his Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra).
BIGGER ROLE ON INTERNATIONAL STAGE?
Mr Prabowo has pledged to continue Mr Widodo’s legacy, which includes his infrastructure drive and the planned relocation of the country’s capital from Jakarta to Nusantara in East Kalimantan.
But analysts told CNA that Mr Prabowo will likely prioritise his own programmes and campaign promises, such as the free-meal programme for schoolchildren and pregnant women.
The former general could also pave the way for the military to play a greater role in Indonesia. Analysts highlighted the fact that Mr Prabowo is already earmarking 165.2 trillion rupiah for the defence ministry, the biggest out of all ministries.
Some Indonesians are concerned about the military playing a bigger role in Indonesia, in light of allegations of past abuses by military personnel.
Analysts said Mr Prabowo could also attempt to revise the law and allow military personnel to own businesses, raising concerns of conflict of interest and a return to the New Order era under Suharto, when the military was involved in both defence and civilian governance.
A bill containing similar provisions was discussed by the last parliament. But the parliamentarians ran out of time to address some of the public’s concerns and failed to pass it by the end of their term on Sep 30. The bill could still be revived by new lawmakers who were sworn in on Oct 1.
Given his outgoing personality, vast network and track record as defence minister, Indonesia under Mr Prabowo could play a bigger role on the international stage – from seeking a resolution to the ongoing conflict in Myanmar and tensions in the South China Sea, to mitigating the effects of a United States-China rivalry in the region.
Unlike Mr Widodo, who tended to send his foreign minister Retno Marsudi to international summits and forums, analysts said Mr Prabowo will likely attend more events and engage with leaders from other countries, allowing Indonesia to increase its presence and role in the international arena.
In the last six months, he has already visited about 20 countries and attended events such as the Paris Olympics. Observers have noted that while most of the official visits were focused on defence cooperation, some were not related to Indonesia’s security matters.
